Minsheng Securities·2025-06-26 10:23Investment Rating - The report recommends focusing on the commercial rocket industry, indicating a significant turning point in 2025 for China's commercial rocket capabilities [3][28]. Core Insights - The commercial rocket industry in China is experiencing a notable shift towards commercialization, driven by policy support and an increase in private sector participation [1][9]. - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for China's commercial rocket sector, with improvements in launch site efficiency and the introduction of new reusable rocket technologies [2][28]. - The deployment of low Earth orbit communication constellations is expected to create substantial market demand for domestic commercial rockets, with specific companies highlighted for investment opportunities [3][28]. Summary by Sections 1. New Generation Commercial Rockets - The report emphasizes that China is on the verge of a significant increase in total rocket capacity, with both state-owned and private companies ramping up their launch activities [1][2]. - The number of commercial launch sites is increasing, with the Hainan commercial launch site and the Dongfang launch port now operational, enhancing launch frequency and efficiency [2][23]. - The report draws parallels with SpaceX's advancements, suggesting that China's heavy-lift rocket development is progressing steadily, with the Long March 9 expected to complete its first flight around 2030 [2][28]. 2. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies specific companies as key investment opportunities, including XW&G60, Xinke Mobile, Zhenyou Technology, Shanghai Hantong, and Haige Communication, due to their involvement in the commercial rocket sector [3][28]. - The report also highlights the potential for growth among suppliers of rocket components, such as Jiufeng Energy, Srey New Materials, and GaoHua Technology, as the industry expands [3][28]. 3. Industry Development - The report outlines the increasing number of rocket launches by private companies, which accounted for 17.65% of total launches in 2024, up from 7.81% in 2022, indicating a growing role for private enterprises in the sector [1][16]. - The report notes that the Long March series rockets are currently the primary vehicles for launching large satellite constellations, with specific missions detailed for various satellite groups [20][22]. - The report discusses the ongoing development of new launch sites and facilities, which are expected to support a higher frequency of launches in the coming years [26][27].