TGA账户如何影响流动性？

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In recent years, as the TGA/reserves ratio increases, the influence of the TGA account on US dollar liquidity has gradually grown. The TGA account, used by the US Treasury to manage government revenues and expenditures, is an important part of the liability side of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Its balance passively reflects the Treasury's revenue and expenditure behavior. The impact of TGA balance changes on US dollar liquidity should be understood within the framework of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, often causing short - term marginal disturbances, while overnight reverse repurchases act as a buffer. Historically, the debt ceiling is the core factor determining its balance changes, with the account balance typically decreasing first and then increasing after hitting the ceiling. It is expected that the current TGA balance will be depleted by the end of August. After the X - date, the Treasury's issuance of short - term bonds to replenish funds may deplete the ON RRP balance and affect the reserve scale, potentially putting pressure on US dollar liquidity [7]. Summary by Directory TGA Account Overview - The TGA account is a deposit account opened by the US Treasury at the Federal Reserve for managing government daily revenues and expenditures. It is an important part of the liability side of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, with its share significantly increasing after 2020. Its balance is passively generated, reflecting the Treasury's revenue and expenditure behavior. The establishment of the TGA account has multiple purposes such as revenue and debt management and policy coordination, but it also has some drawbacks, including mismatched cost - benefit of funds, complex management of funds from different sources, and policy signals interfering with the market. The selection of the TGA account balance requires a trade - off between safety and cost. Fiscal cycles, tax rhythms, government expenditure patterns, and monetary coordination all affect the TGA account balance [3]. - The TGA account balance is affected by the Treasury's "revenue and expenditure behavior" in the market. Revenue inflows mainly include taxes, treasury bond issuance, government fees, and emergency funds, while outflows mainly include debt repayment and fiscal expenditures. Economic conditions, tax seasonality, fiscal policies, debt ceilings, bond issuance management, and fiscal expenditure resilience all influence TGA account changes [12]. - The Treasury's transactions with different market participants can cause TGA account changes. When the Treasury issues treasury bonds, the subscription by the Fed, commercial banks, and money market funds will affect the TGA account balance, and the corresponding changes will be reflected in reserves, currency in circulation, and reverse repurchases. When the Treasury conducts fiscal revenue or expenditure, the change in the TGA account balance will correspond to changes in reserves and cash [18][19]. TGA Account's Impact on Liquidity Levels of US Dollar Liquidity - At the macro - aggregate level, liquidity is reflected in the supply scale of the monetary base, which the Federal Reserve can regulate through policy interest rates, balance - sheet expansion and contraction. Currently, the US dollar liquidity is generally abundant, but the policy interest rate remains high, leading to a marginal tightening of liquidity. The current US liquidity management framework is based on abundant liquidity, with the Federal Reserve setting a price range for the policy interest rate and absorbing excess liquidity through commercial bank reserves and overnight reverse repurchases [31]. - At the micro - market level, liquidity can be divided into four levels: the commercial banking system, the repo market, the real - sector financing market, and the offshore US dollar market. Each market has corresponding quantitative and price indicators to measure liquidity [35]. Relationship between TGA Account and Liquidity - The impact of the TGA account on US dollar liquidity should be understood within the framework of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The Federal Reserve's policy determines the direction of liquidity, while TGA balance changes are more of a short - term marginal disturbance. During the Fed's balance - sheet expansion, a rising TGA balance's pressure on liquidity can be absorbed, but a rapid decline in the TGA balance may lead to short - term liquidity abundance. During the Fed's balance - sheet contraction, a falling TGA balance can partially relieve the pressure on liquidity, but a rapid rise in the TGA balance may cause short - term shocks to liquidity [68][69]. - There is an inverse relationship between the overnight reverse repurchase balance and the TGA account balance, which can smooth the impact of TGA account changes on market liquidity. When the TGA balance decreases, excess liquidity is absorbed by overnight reverse repurchases; when the TGA balance increases, the reverse repurchase market provides liquidity [70]. - TGA balance changes usually have a small impact on the reserve scale, and reserves will only decline significantly in a liquidity - depleted situation. The change in the TGA account balance involves issues such as the sustainability of US fiscal revenue and expenditure, debt repayment, and bond issuance, which may affect liquidity through indirect channels such as debt risk, sector leverage willingness, and bond - market structure [4][71]. Analysis of TGA Account Fluctuations and Trends Fluctuations and Causes of the Current TGA Balance - Since the beginning of 2025, the TGA account balance has changed significantly, first decreasing and then increasing. As of June 18, 2025, the balance was $3836 billion. The changes are mainly related to the debt ceiling and taxes. At the beginning of 2025, the government debt ceiling expired, and government spending accelerated, causing the TGA account balance to shrink. Then, it was replenished during the tax season and due to increased tariffs, but later entered a phase of accelerated balance depletion [84]. Analysis of TGA Balance Trends - Historically, the debt ceiling is the core factor determining the TGA balance. After hitting the ceiling, the account balance usually decreases first and then increases. Before the X - date, the balance is depleted to meet fiscal expenditures, and after the X - date, it is replenished through bond issuance. - Regarding when the TGA balance will be depleted, it depends on fiscal revenue, expenditure rhythms, and the TGA scale. Revenue - side factors include tax - policy changes and economic trends. Expenditure - side factors involve rigid expenditures such as interest costs and mandatory spending. The TGA balance can be used to estimate the X - date. It is expected that the TGA balance will be depleted by the end of August [85][89]. - Regarding the impact of TGA balance changes on liquidity, before the X - date, the government uses fiscal deposits to pay for government operations and interest, creating market liquidity. After the X - date, the Treasury needs to replenish the TGA account by issuing bonds, which may deplete the ON RRP balance and affect the reserve scale, potentially causing significant pressure on US dollar liquidity [95]. Conclusions and Insights - The TGA account balance is expected to first decrease and then increase. The X - date may occur before August, and at that time, the TGA account balance will be difficult to support subsequent expenditures, increasing the probability of a bipartisan negotiation. - Before the X - date, liquidity will be relatively abundant, and after the X - date, it will tighten rapidly. The impact of TGA balance changes on different markets varies. For the bond market, the impact on yields depends on the Federal Reserve's policy direction. For the stock market, a decrease in the TGA balance benefits growth stocks, but the approaching X - date restricts risk appetite. For commodities, industrial commodities are more affected by fiscal policies, and gold is a good hedging asset [103][104][105].