金融工程2025中期策略展望：身处变局，结构求新

Group 1: Equity Quantitative Analysis - The equity market risk factor returns have normalized in H1 2025, with small-cap and momentum factors performing prominently. The net profit of the entire A-share market has turned positive year-on-year for the first time since Q2 2023, indicating a significant recovery in the industrial sector. The TMT sector is expected to continue its growth in the second half of the year, with some cyclical industries likely to see a performance inflection point [3][14][23] - The technical analysis suggests that the broad market index may continue in a volatile pattern, with a focus on breakout directions. The overall ranking of indices is as follows: CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > CSI 300 > CSI 2000 [3][39][41] Group 2: Interest Rate Quantitative Analysis - The 10-year government bond yield has dropped below 2% and stabilized at a low level of 1.6%-1.7%. The recovery in economic activity and credit impulses has suppressed further declines in interest rates. The current willingness to hold inflation assets has weakened again, compounded by negative ROE in the real estate sector and low leverage in high ROE industries, leading to a lack of upward momentum in interest rates [3][49][63] - The future direction of interest rates will depend on the demand for funds from high ROE and high-leverage industries, which are currently lacking [3][70][75] Group 3: Gold Quantitative Analysis - Gold is viewed as a hedge against risk, with current fiscal factors dominating its price movements. The geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainties globally are expected to support gold prices. The technical analysis indicates that gold has consolidated and accumulated support, with a target price set at $3,885 per ounce [3][81][87] Group 4: Industry Quantitative Analysis - The rotation speed among industries is expected to accelerate, with opportunities becoming more dispersed. Long-term investments in growth industries are anticipated to yield higher expected returns. The lifecycle model indicates that overall growth in primary industries is insufficient, with growth concentrated in tertiary industries, particularly in the basic chemical sector [4][14][23] - The TMT sector is projected to continue its growth trajectory, while industries such as basic chemicals and building materials are expected to stabilize and recover due to ongoing fiscal support for infrastructure projects [23][31][37]