保险业态观察（五）：杜绝“内卷式分红”，建立分红水平动态管理机制

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for a dynamic management mechanism for dividend levels in the insurance sector, aiming to prevent "involution-style" competition in dividend payouts. This is in response to regulatory guidance aimed at enhancing the sustainable operation of dividend insurance products [4]. - The establishment of a dual-track dynamic adjustment mechanism for dividend levels is expected to improve asset allocation capabilities and risk management within insurance companies, thereby enhancing their overall risk resilience and profitability [4]. - The report anticipates a significant reduction in the preset interest rate for insurance products, with a large-scale adjustment expected to begin in Q3 2025, which could stimulate policy sales [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - Stablecoins and policy catalysts are expected to boost the brokerage sector, with ongoing attention to related thematic investment opportunities [4]. - The optimization of the brokerage classification evaluation system is encouraged to enhance business efficiency and specialization [4]. - Recent regulatory changes in the classification of securities companies and enhanced supervision of dividend insurance are noted [4]. Regulatory Developments - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued guidelines to strengthen the linkage between asset and liability management in the insurance sector, emphasizing prudent determination of dividend levels [4]. - Companies are required to align their dividend levels with historical performance and capital strength, ensuring that proposed dividend levels do not exceed the average financial investment returns of the past three years [4]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the life insurance liability transformation is ongoing, with a gradual reduction in workforce size and significant improvements in productivity [4]. - The "Nine Policies" initiative is expected to create a new starting point for the capital market, with a positive outlook for equity markets and a potential alleviation of interest margin loss risks due to the anticipated reduction in preset interest rates [4]. - The insurance sector is currently viewed as undervalued, presenting opportunities for strategic allocation, particularly in large listed insurance companies with strong competitive advantages [4].