国投期货化工日报-20250626

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ - Styrene: ★★★ - PTA: ★★★ - Short Fiber: ★★★ - Methanol: ★★★ - Urea: ★★★ - PVC: ★★★ - Caustic Soda: ★★★ - Glass: ★★★ - Soda Ash: ★★★ - Plastic: ★★★ - PX: ★★★ - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The methanol market is expected to consolidate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to port inventory data and changes in Iranian device and shipping schedules [2]. - The urea price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and exports may become the key to the subsequent market trend [3]. - The supply - demand contradiction in the polyolefin market continues [4]. - The PX and PTA markets may gradually become looser in the medium term, and the ethylene glycol market will gradually stabilize and enter a bottom - range shock pattern [6]. - The PVC futures price may fluctuate at a low level in the long term, and the caustic soda futures price is expected to continue the low - level trend [7]. - The glass futures price is expected to fluctuate with costs, and the soda ash futures price is mainly based on a high - level short - selling strategy [8]. Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol futures price has risen. With the easing of the Iran - Israel situation, the expectation of a significant reduction in imported methanol supply has failed. Most current devices remain shut down, and the port inventory has decreased significantly. However, downstream acceptance of high - priced raw materials is average [2]. Urea - Urea agricultural demand is gradually approaching the end of the peak season, but there is still some rigid demand. The daily output has decreased slightly, and the supply - demand margin has improved. The export policy has been relaxed, and the port inventory has increased significantly. The short - term international urea price increase has driven the improvement of domestic demand [3]. Polyolefins - The futures prices of polyolefins have risen slightly. Some previously shut - down polyethylene devices have restarted, and the demand is in the off - season. The cost support for polypropylene has declined, and the downstream demand is weak [4]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices continue to fluctuate narrowly. The supply of PX and PTA may increase in the medium term, and the industrial supply - demand pattern may gradually become looser. The ethylene glycol price has fallen and is expected to stabilize. Short fiber and bottle chip prices have followed the raw materials to fluctuate slightly [6]. Chlor - Alkali - The PVC cost has increased, and the supply remains high. The domestic demand is weak, and the new orders are cautious. The caustic soda futures price is expected to continue the low - level trend, and the inventory has increased [7]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass has shown strength recently due to slight inventory reduction and cost increase. The high - inventory and weak - demand pattern continues. The soda ash has shown strength due to production reduction and cost promotion, but the long - term supply pressure remains [8].