Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-26 11:19Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for the ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,300 - 14,250, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,600 - 12,300. The overall supply of natural rubber is affected by weather, with rain in Yunnan and tropical depressions in Hainan affecting raw material supply. The inventory in Qingdao shows a mixed trend, with an overall increase in total inventory. The demand side sees the tire enterprise production gradually returning to normal, and the short - term capacity utilization is expected to be basically stable [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,040 yuan/ton, down 845 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is 270 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,145 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 7 - 8 spread is 335 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 1,895 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan. The trading volume and net positions of the two contracts also show different changes [2] Spot Market - The prices of various types of natural rubber and synthetic rubber in the spot market have different trends. For example, the price of Shanghai market state - owned whole latex is 10,000 yuan/ton (data incomplete), and the price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,685 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference prices of different forms of Thai raw rubber show different changes, with RSS3 theoretical production profit at 145.6 US dollars/ton, up 12.8 US dollars, and STR20 theoretical production profit at 11.4 US dollars/ton, down 50.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technical - classified natural rubber and mixed rubber has decreased [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires have increased, but the inventory days, production volume of both types of tires have decreased [2] Option Market - The historical volatility and implied volatility of the underlying asset show different trends. The historical 20 - day volatility is 22.19%, down 5.06%, and the historical 40 - day volatility is 23.26%, up 0.61%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options is 24.27%, up 1.03% [2] Industry News - In the first week of June 2025, rainfall in the Southeast Asian main producing areas of natural rubber changed, affecting the rubber tapping work. As of June 22, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased, with a decrease in bonded area inventory and an increase in general trade inventory [2]