Great Wall Securities·2025-06-26 11:36Core Views - The report highlights that increased consumer subsidy policies across various regions are expected to stimulate market vitality and promote sustained terminal demand recovery [2][67] - The 618 shopping festival saw a 15% year-on-year increase in total e-commerce sales, indicating a shift towards a "long cycle + strong wave" promotional model [2][79] - Despite a temporary easing of global trade tensions, the textile manufacturing industry may still face impacts from potential future tariff escalations [2][99] Market Review - As of June 20, 2025, the textile and apparel industry has seen a slight increase of 0.12%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.36 percentage points [9] - The textile manufacturing sub-industry has decreased by 8.41%, while the accessories sub-industry has surged by 23.16%, significantly outperforming the market [10][9] Industry Overview - The report notes that consumer confidence has stabilized, with per capita GDP reaching 95,700 yuan in 2024, and a GDP growth rate of 5.0% [31][28] - Retail sales in May 2025 showed a significant increase, with total retail sales reaching 4,132.6 billion yuan, up 6.4% year-on-year [35] Mid-term Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer subsidy policies and the gradual recovery of terminal demand, particularly in the brand apparel and home textile sectors [71][67] - Leading companies in the home textile sector, such as Luolai Life and Mercury Home Textile, are expected to benefit from ongoing subsidy policies [72] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Chao Hong Ji, Huali Group, Xingye Technology, Mercury Home Textile, Luolai Life, Semir Apparel, and Baoxiniang, focusing on companies with strong brand and product capabilities [2] Company Performance - In Q1 2025, the textile manufacturing sub-industry reported a revenue increase of 0.73% and a net profit increase of 11.38% [57] - Key companies like Chao Hong Ji and Huali Group have shown significant stock price increases of 151.80% and 12.34% respectively [16][66] Global Trade Dynamics - The report indicates that while the recent tariff conflicts have eased, the textile manufacturing industry remains vulnerable to future trade tensions [99] - Companies with high export ratios, such as Huali Group and Bailong Oriental, have established overseas production capacities to mitigate tariff impacts [99][102]