Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily increase of 0.10%, and the volume and open interest expanded. The supply of rebar continued to rise, while the demand was weakly stable. The fundamentals remained seasonally weak, and steel prices were under pressure. However, the inventory inflection point was yet to appear, and the real - world contradictions were limited. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil rebounded from the bottom, with a daily increase of 0.39%, and the volume increased while the open interest remained stable. The supply of hot - rolled coil was stable at a high level, while the demand weakened. The fundamental contradictions accumulated, and the price of hot - rolled coil continued to be under pressure and oscillated at a low level. Attention should be paid to the risk of tariffs after the "exemption period" ends [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated higher, with a daily increase of 0.64%, and the volume increased while the open interest decreased. The demand for iron ore showed some resilience, supporting the ore price. However, the supply remained at a high level, and the demand growth space was limited. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore did not improve substantially, and the ore price continued to be under pressure and oscillated at a low level. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - In May 2025, the number of new global shipbuilding orders was 73, a decrease of 46 from April 2025. The corrected total tonnage decreased by 63.85% month - on - month and 54.71% year - on - year. Chinese shipyards received the most orders, followed by South Korea [6]. - The third batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be issued in July 2025. The relevant departments will coordinate to ensure the orderly implementation of the consumer goods trade - in policy throughout the year [7]. - The Eurasian Economic Commission decided to continue imposing a 15.50% anti - dumping duty on seamless steel pipes originating from China until June 23, 2030. The announcement will take effect on July 24, 2025 [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,030, 3,160, and 3,190 respectively, with price changes of - 10, - 20, and - 6. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,180, 3,100, and 3,218 respectively, with no price changes. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,910 with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,100 with a - 10 change. The coil - rebar price difference was 150, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 930 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 702 with a + 2 change, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 697 with no change. The sea freight from Australia was 8.78, and from Brazil was 22.68. The SGX swap price (current month) was 94.30, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 92.75 [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 2,973, with a 0.10% increase, the highest price was 2,977, the lowest price was 2,952, the trading volume was 1,377,892 with an increase of 16,628, and the open interest was 2,191,778 with an increase of 19,178 [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,103, with a 0.39% increase, the highest price was 3,104, the lowest price was 3,080, the trading volume was 552,939 with an increase of 19,514, and the open interest was 1,510,669 with an increase of 263 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 705.5, with a 0.64% increase, the highest price was 707.5, the lowest price was 698.0, the trading volume was 326,475 with an increase of 10,602, and the open interest was 654,225 with a decrease of 17,723 [11]. Related Charts - The report presents various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes and total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil, and inventories of iron ore at ports, steel mills, and domestic mines [13][18][28] - Charts also show the production situation of steel mills, such as the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate of independent electric furnaces and the profit - loss situation of independent electric arc furnace steel mills [28][31][35] Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern changed little. The weekly output increased by 5.66 tons, and the demand was weakly stable. The fundamentals remained seasonally weak, and steel prices were expected to continue to oscillate [36]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern changed. The weekly output increased by 1.79 tons, and the demand weakened. The price was under pressure and oscillated at a low level, and attention should be paid to the tariff risk after the "exemption period" ends [36]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern changed. The terminal consumption of ore increased slightly, but the supply remained at a high level. The ore price was under pressure and oscillated at a low level, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [37]
现实矛盾有限，钢矿低位震荡
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-06-26 12:15