Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish/bearish trend with limited trading operability [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish/bearish trend with limited trading operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bullish/bearish trend with limited trading operability [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning the short-term bullish/bearish trend is in a relatively balanced state, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating the short-term bullish/bearish trend is in a relatively balanced state, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil may fluctuate weakly in the short term, influenced by macro and supply-demand factors, with attention on the progress of US-Iran nuclear talks and the recurrence risk of the Middle East situation [1] - Fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures are running weakly, with different trends in their cracking spreads [2] - Asphalt has shown strong performance recently, with potential increases in supply and demand [3] - LPG's fundamentals are generally loose, and the market is oscillating after the geopolitical impact fades [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined slightly, with the SC08 contract dropping 1.12% during the day [1] - Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 5.836 million barrels more than expected, but the four-week average of refined oil apparent demand was still 1.6% lower than the same period last year [1] - In the third-quarter peak season, the global oil inventory accumulation may narrow, but the loose situation is difficult to fundamentally change under the OPEC+ production increase pressure [1] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The decline of SC has led to the weak operation of fuel oil futures [2] - As the geopolitical premium of high-sulfur fuel oil fades, FU is weaker than LU [2] - The demand for ship bunkering and deep processing is sluggish, and the demand boost for high-sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East and North Africa in summer is discounted due to the high cracking valuation [2] - The cracking spread of low-sulfur fuel oil has rebounded from a low level [2] Asphalt - BU remained strong today despite SC leading the decline [3] - In July, refineries plan to produce 2.47 million tons of asphalt, with some refinery overhauls postponed and others resuming production [3] - The supply of asphalt may be compressed due to the expected increase in the operating rate of Sinopec's deep processing units [3] - The cumulative year-on-year increase in the shipment volume of 54 sample refineries is considerable, and the terminal demand is expected to be substantially boosted soon [3] LPG - After the geopolitical situation eases, the Middle East market has declined significantly [4] - The domestic chemical demand has rebounded, and the cost advantage of PG in the chemical industry has increased [4] - The supply pressure may decrease, and the market is oscillating after the geopolitical impact fades [4]
能源日报-20250626
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-06-26 12:40