Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economy is expected to run smoothly in Q2, but Q3 may face challenges due to changes in the external environment [85] - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and a total of 50 basis points in the second half of the year, providing room for domestic interest rate cuts [85] - The central bank is expected to continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and there is a possibility of another policy rate cut in the second half of the year [85] - Considering the expectation of future interest rate cuts, a strategy of buying on dips and trading in bands can be considered [85] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Disk Review - Treasury Futures Active Contract Trends: Since November 2024, the treasury futures market has been advancing ahead of schedule, rising sharply until January 2025. After the central bank announced the suspension of open - market treasury bond purchases on January 10, the 30 - year variety reached a high in early February and then fell until mid - March, followed by a rebound. In early April, due to the US tariff news, prices rose, then consolidated. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade joint statement on May 12, prices slightly declined and then fluctuated narrowly. In June, with the decline in capital interest rates, prices rose slightly [7] - Treasury Bond Spot Yield Trends: Most treasury bond spot yields reached their lows in early January, over - reacting to the "moderately loose monetary policy." After the central bank's announcement on January 10, yields rebounded. After the Spring Festival, rising capital interest rates and a strong stock market pushed bond yields up. Short - term interest rates rebounded faster than long - term ones. The 10 - year treasury bond yield reached 1.90% in mid - March, then dropped rapidly in early April due to tariff news and stabilized later. The latest 10 - year yield is around 1.65% [10] - Treasury Bond Spot Yield Curve Changes: As of June 25, compared with the end of last year, the treasury bond spot yield curve showed a distorted flattening. The 2 - year yield rose 23 basis points to 1.37%, the 5 - year rose 10 basis points to 1.52%, the 10 - year dropped 3 basis points to 1.65%, and the 30 - year dropped 5 basis points to 1.86% [12] 2. Current Analysis - Investment: From January to May, national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 4.0%. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.42%, narrow - sense infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6%, and manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%. Real estate development investment decreased by 10.7%. The issuance of "two - major" projects is approaching [16] - Real Estate: From January to May, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 3.8%. In May, the second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, and those in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5%. As of June 25, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 6% year - on - year [18][21][23] - Consumption: In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 4.9%. The sales of household appliances, communication equipment and other categories increased significantly. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.94% month - on - month, and consumer demand is accelerating its release [25][27][30] - Service Industry: In May, the national service industry production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year, with relatively fast growth in information technology, leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail industries [32] - Foreign Trade: In May, China's exports increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 3.4%. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased, while exports to the US decreased significantly [35][38] - Industry: In May, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.8% year - on - year, slightly higher than the market expectation. The product sales rate of large - scale industrial enterprises was 95.9% [41][43] - Employment: In May, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [46] - Prices: In May, CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year. The decline of the agricultural product wholesale price index slowed down in June, and gasoline prices increased, which may promote the rebound of consumer prices [49][52][56] - Social Financing: In May, the social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, higher than the market expectation. The net financing of government bonds increased significantly, while the increase in RMB loans to the real economy decreased year - on - year [61] - Exchange Rate: The US dollar index declined after reaching a high in January. The US dollar against the RMB dropped to around 7.17 on June 25. The CFETS RMB exchange rate index showed a downward trend in the first half of the year [67] - Interest Rate Spread: The Sino - US 10 - year treasury bond interest rate spread mostly remained above 2.5%, which restricted the flexibility of domestic interest rate cuts to some extent [69] - Fed's Policy: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and a total of 50 basis points in the second half of the year [71] - Capital Interest Rate: After the central bank cut interest rates on May 8, the market capital interest rate declined [73] - Government Bond Financing: As of June 25, the net financing of government bonds in June was 1408.8 billion yuan, and the total net financing in the first six months was 7.8 trillion yuan, much higher than that in the same period in 2024 [76] - Treasury Bond Term Spread: The 10 - year and 1 - year treasury bond term spread narrowed from the end of last year to April and then rebounded slightly. The 30 - year and 10 - year spread fluctuated around 0.2% [80] 3. Strategy Suggestions - The Chinese economy may face challenges in the third quarter due to external environment changes The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, providing room for domestic interest rate cuts The central bank is expected to continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and there is a possibility of another policy rate cut in the second half of the year Considering the expectation of future interest rate cuts, a strategy of buying on dips and trading in bands can be considered [85]
格林大华期货国债期货半年报
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-06-26 13:10