“保险行业101”基础研究系列报告之二：如何评估人身险公司的“利差损”风险？

Investment Rating - The report rates the insurance industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [27]. Core Insights - Concerns regarding "interest spread loss" are central to the valuation of life insurance companies, which can be assessed from three perspectives: investment experience deviation under embedded value (EV) changes, the difference between actual investment returns and the VIF breakeven yield, and investment performance under new accounting standards [4][5][6]. - The embedded value assessment indicates that the current investment return assumption for insurance companies is 4.0%, reflecting a reduction of 50 basis points over the past two years. The investment experience deviation from 2014 to 2024 shows significant variances among major insurers, with China Life experiencing a loss of 734.5 billion yuan [5]. - The net investment yield and total investment yield metrics from 2017 to 2024 show that most A-share listed insurers have maintained positive interest spreads, although these spreads have been narrowing over time [6]. - Following the implementation of IFRS 9 and IFRS 17 in 2023, the investment performance of listed insurers is expected to contribute positively, with projected contributions from major players like China Life and China Ping An [7]. Summary by Sections Investment Experience Deviation - The investment experience deviation reflects the difference between actual investment performance and the assumed investment return, impacting the embedded value of insurers [5]. Interest Spread Analysis - The report analyzes interest spreads using both net investment yield and total investment yield metrics, indicating a trend of narrowing spreads among major insurers from 2017 to 2024 [6]. New Accounting Standards Impact - The adoption of new accounting standards is expected to enhance the clarity of investment performance reporting, with positive contributions anticipated from major insurers in the coming years [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends continued investment in companies such as New China Life, China Life (H), China Pacific Insurance (H), China Ping An, AIA, and ZhongAn Online, citing favorable fundamentals and potential for improved liability costs [7].