汇丰：博通-ASIC潜力惊喜，目标价400

Investment Rating - The report upgrades Broadcom Inc to a Buy from Hold with a target price of USD 400, up from USD 240, indicating an implied upside of approximately 58% from the current share price of USD 253.77 [5][7][12]. Core Insights - The report expresses a positive outlook on Broadcom driven by improved visibility into ASIC revenues, which are expected to significantly exceed market expectations due to better project visibility and pricing power [2][3][12]. - Concerns regarding potential share loss in the wireless segment and a slowdown in VMware have been toned down, with revised estimates aligning more closely with consensus [4][54][57]. ASIC Revenue Potential - ASIC revenue is projected to ramp up significantly starting FY26, with expectations of strong demand from existing customers and the addition of new customers, leading to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 96% from 2023 to 2027 [21][51]. - The report revises ASIC revenue estimates for FY26 and FY27 to USD 28.4 billion and USD 42.8 billion, respectively, which are 42% and 69% higher than consensus estimates [3][31][36]. - The anticipated increase in ASIC blended average selling prices (ASPs) is expected to be 92% year-over-year in FY26 and 25% in FY27, driven by a shift towards larger die sizes and improved memory specifications [27][31][39]. Wireless Segment and VMware - The report revises wireless revenue estimates for FY26 and FY27 to USD 6.8 billion and USD 6.3 billion, respectively, reflecting a more gradual share loss from Apple than previously expected [4][56]. - VMware's revenue growth is expected to remain stable for another 18 months as customers transition to subscription models, mitigating concerns about an imminent slowdown [4][57]. Financial Projections - Broadcom's projected earnings per share (EPS) for FY27 is now estimated at USD 12.54, which is 32% above consensus estimates [5][8][12]. - The report highlights a significant increase in revenue and EBITDA projections for FY26 and FY27, with revenue expected to reach USD 82.6 billion and USD 102.7 billion, respectively [13][14].