高盛：将如何收场_以全球先例为参照，对比中国房地产市场下行

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's property sector is experiencing renewed weakness in prices and activity, with property new starts down approximately 75% from their peak and property sales down 50% as of May 2025 [5] - Historical benchmarks indicate that housing busts typically involve a median price correction of around 30% over six years, with significant GDP growth deceleration and deflationary pressures following such downturns [4][10] - China's unique trajectory during this downturn includes substantial government-led investment in infrastructure and manufacturing, which has offset declines in residential investment [4][20] Summary by Sections Housing Bust Definition and Historical Context - Housing busts are defined as real price declines exceeding 20% from cyclical peaks, with 21 episodes identified across 15 economies since the 1960s [4][8] - The median duration of these busts is around six years, with a typical price decline of approximately 30% [10][12] China's Current Situation - China's real house prices have declined by 20% from the peak in Q4 2021 through Q4 2024, with projections indicating a potential further decline of 10% before stabilizing around 2027 [11][49] - The downturn coincided with Covid lockdowns and a subsequent reopening, complicating the growth patterns [4][5] Economic Implications - Real GDP growth typically declines by about 5 percentage points within the first two years of a housing bust, with non-residential investment being the largest growth drag [20][24] - In China, the share of residential investment in GDP has collapsed, while non-residential investment has rebounded due to government efforts [25][26] Trade and Policy Responses - Net exports as a share of GDP generally rise by 2-3 percentage points post-peak, driven by weaker imports and stronger exports, a trend currently observed in China [32][50] - China's policy response has been more measured compared to global norms, with a cautious approach to monetary and fiscal easing [36][41] Lessons from Historical Episodes - Historical evidence suggests that it may take years for housing busts to find a bottom, with the potential for further price corrections in China [49] - The report emphasizes the need for additional policy easing to prevent entrenched demand weakness, highlighting the constraints faced by Chinese policymakers [52]