Goldman Sachs·2025-06-26 14:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for InnoCare Pharma (H share) is "Buy" with a 12-month target price of HK$12.72, indicating a downside potential of 7.6% from the current price of HK$13.76 [8][9]. Core Insights - InnoCare Pharma is on track for commercial progress, with management guiding for one major business development (BD) deal in the second half of 2025 [1][2]. - The company expects peak sales of over US$1 billion for orelabrutinib in China, driven by various indications including hematologic cancers, immune thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP), and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) [6][8]. - Upcoming data readouts over the next 12 months include phase 2b data for orelabrutinib on SLE and phase 3 data for ICP-488 on psoriasis [7]. Summary by Sections Business Development Focus - The management's priority for out-licensing will focus on immunology disease assets, particularly: 1. ICP-332, which has shown promising phase 2 data for atopic dermatitis and is also being studied for vitiligo and prurigo nodularis [2]. 2. ICP-488, with accelerated patient enrollment for phase 3 trials on psoriasis [2]. 3. Orelabrutinib, with global trials planned for primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) [2]. Commercialization Progress - The company reported that commercial execution in Q2 was on track, with a year-on-year growth expectation of over 35% for orelabrutinib [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for InnoCare Pharma indicate growth from Rmb1,009.4 million in 2024 to Rmb2,717.9 million by 2027, with EBITDA improving from a loss of Rmb547.3 million in 2024 to a profit of Rmb194.4 million in 2027 [9].