资产配置日报：尚未形成合力-20250626

Market Overview - The stock and bond markets are experiencing fluctuations, with a slight tilt towards the bond market as equity assets take a breather after three consecutive days of gains [2] - Major stock indices showed minor declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 down by 0.22% and 0.35% respectively, while the CSI Dividend Index saw a slight increase of 0.03% [2] - In the bond market, yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds decreased by 1.1 basis points and 1.5 basis points to 1.64% and 1.85% respectively [2] Commodity Performance - Internationally, oil and gold prices rebounded for the second consecutive day, with WTI and Brent crude oil contracts rising by less than 1% [3] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a decline in crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories, indicating a recovery in refining activities and stable end-user consumption [3] - Domestic commodities saw a positive response from the black series due to favorable policies, with coking coal and coke prices increasing by 3.60% and 1.86% respectively [3] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank is increasingly protective as the quarter-end approaches, with a net injection of 30.58 billion yuan through reverse repos, bringing the total net injection since June 24 to over 70 billion yuan [4][5] - Despite the central bank's efforts, the cost of funds is rising, with the pricing of non-bank 7-day instruments showing an increase [4][5] Equity Market Dynamics - The equity market is experiencing marginal corrections, with the total trading volume decreasing to 1.62 trillion yuan, down 163 billion yuan from the previous day [7] - There is a notable shift in sentiment, with some funds showing profit-taking behavior, as indicated by a net outflow of 3.7 billion yuan from stock ETFs [7][8] - The implied volatility in the market has significantly decreased, suggesting a withdrawal of bullish expectations among investors [8] Sector Performance - The banking sector continues to perform well, with the SW Bank Index rising by 1.01%, while the non-bank financial sector saw a decline of 1.20% [10] - The communication sector also showed strength, with the corresponding SW Index up by 0.77% [10] - The defense and military sector is driven by expectations surrounding the September military parade, with the SW Defense Industry Index increasing by 0.55% [10] Future Outlook - The current market rally is temporarily stalled, but the bullish sentiment remains intact, indicating potential for future rebounds despite the likelihood of adjustments [11] - Structural opportunities may become more significant as the difficulty of betting on index movements increases, with particular attention on consumer goods, military, and technology sectors [11]