Cheetah Mobile(US:CMCM) Guohai Securities·2025-06-26 15:36Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Cheetah Mobile (CMCM.N) as part of its initial coverage [1]. Core Insights - Cheetah Mobile has successfully transitioned from a PC-based company to a mobile internet and now an AI-focused enterprise, with a solid foundation in service robots and AI applications [7][15]. - The company is positioned as a leading global AI firm, with a diverse product matrix in service robots and large model applications, indicating strong growth potential [7][8]. - Revenue forecasts for Cheetah Mobile from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 9.71 billion, 12.11 billion, and 15.04 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20%, 25%, and 24% [8]. Summary by Sections Basic Information - Cheetah Mobile's revenue is primarily derived from internet business, with AI business emerging as a significant growth driver [12][17]. - The company has a rich history, evolving through three key phases: PC era, mobile internet era, and AI era, with significant milestones in each phase [15][17]. AI Business - The global service robot market is expected to reach $56.9 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 14.9% from 2023 to 2028 [25]. - Cheetah Mobile's AI robot product matrix is extensive, covering various scenarios and achieving widespread application in over 60 countries [36][35]. - The company has developed strong capabilities in large model applications, launching its Orion-14B model in January 2024 and the Orion-MoE 8×7B model in November 2024 [7][48]. Financial Analysis - In 2024, Cheetah Mobile's total revenue is projected to be 8.07 billion yuan, with a 20.5% year-on-year growth, driven by a recovery in internet business and strong performance in AI [70]. - The company is currently in a high-investment phase, with overall expense ratios remaining elevated [71]. Valuation Model - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in Cheetah Mobile's AI business and provides an "Accumulate" rating based on the company's strong cash position and growth prospects [10][76].