国信证券晨会纪要-20250627

Macro and Strategy - The bond market experienced a rebound in the first half of 2025, with credit spreads narrowing. The yield changes for 1-year and 10-year government bonds were +27 basis points and -3 basis points respectively, while credit spreads for AAA and AA-rated bonds decreased by 15 basis points and 22 basis points respectively [7][8]. - The government debt net financing reached 25,594 million in week 25 and is projected to be 67,140 million in week 26, with a cumulative total of 7 trillion, exceeding the previous year's total by 3.7 trillion [9][10]. Banking Industry - The stablecoin ecosystem in Hong Kong is analyzed, highlighting its operational mechanisms and the various participants involved, including issuers, asset management companies, and virtual asset trading platforms. The report emphasizes that stablecoins can enhance the efficiency and security of cross-border payments, although they may disrupt traditional banking operations [11][12]. - The launch of the cross-border payment system in China represents a diversification of the RMB cross-border payment framework, exploring various systems and pilot projects for stablecoin issuance [12]. Electric New Energy Industry - The solid-state battery industry is gaining traction due to policy support and technological advancements. The report notes that solid-state batteries offer high energy density and safety but face challenges such as high manufacturing costs and shorter lifespans. Major automotive companies are planning to scale up production by 2030 [13][14]. - The AIDC power equipment sector is highlighted, with high-voltage direct current (HVDC) technology presenting significant market opportunities for domestic manufacturers. The demand for power supply equipment in data centers is expected to grow substantially, with a projected market size of 108.7 billion by 2030 [15][16]. Automotive Industry - The trend towards steer-by-wire technology is accelerating, with the report indicating that the penetration rate for electronic brake systems (EHB) is nearing 60%. The market for steer-by-wire systems is expected to grow significantly, with projections of over 30% penetration by 2030 [17][19]. - The report discusses the transition from mechanical steering to electronic and steer-by-wire systems, with the current market for electronic power steering (EPS) valued at approximately 38 billion. The market is dominated by foreign joint ventures, but domestic companies are rapidly increasing their market share [18][20]. Company Analysis - The report on Tabo (06110.HK) indicates a mid-single-digit decline in total sales for Q1 2026, with online sales channels showing positive growth. The company is managing inventory effectively, with a focus on improving profitability amid a challenging consumer environment [21][23].