纯碱期货日报-20250627

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current soda ash market has sufficient supply and weak demand. The two major downstream industries, float glass and photovoltaic glass, are in a difficult situation, with inventory on the rise. The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, and soda ash prices may still face downward pressure in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On June 25, 2025, for the soda ash 2508 contract, the latest price was 1171, up 3 with a 0.26% increase, the open interest was 11699, down 29, and the trading volume was 2655. Its opening price was 1166, the highest was 1173, the lowest was 1159, and the settlement price was 1166 [4]. - For the soda ash 2509 contract, the latest price was 1166, up 1 with a 0.09% increase, the open interest was 1561404, down 7874, and the trading volume was 953401. Its opening price was 1158, the highest was 1168, the lowest was 1152, and the settlement price was 1160 [4]. - For the soda ash 2601 contract, the latest price was 1159, up 2 with a 0.17% increase, the open interest was 557916, up 2848, and the trading volume was 125828. Its opening price was 1150, the highest was 1160, the lowest was 1146, and the settlement price was 1154 [4]. 3.2 Spot Market On June 25, domestic soda ash enterprises' quotes remained at a low level. The mainstream ex - factory price of light soda ash was around 1250 - 1350 yuan/ton, and the mainstream delivered price of heavy soda ash to end - users was about 1300 - 1400 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Factors Affecting the Market - Supply: Since June, the weekly output of soda ash has remained above 700,000 tons, with significant supply pressure. Although some plants have maintenance plans in the medium - term approaching summer, there are few new maintenance plans in the short term, and the overall supply is at a high level [5]. - Demand: The involution in the photovoltaic glass industry has led to production cuts. The price rebound of float glass is based on the expectation of supply tightening. Whether the unplanned cold repairs are realized or not, it is unfavorable for the demand of soda ash. In addition, in the demand for light soda ash, the support from lithium carbonate and daily - use glass is limited, and the substitution ratio of caustic soda is less than 5%, with limited incremental demand. Overall, the demand recovery of downstream industries for soda ash is weak, and procurement is mostly for rigid needs, with a cautious market performance [5]. - Macro - level: There are signs of easing in the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the overnight crude oil futures price has declined. Although the State Council executive meeting has made targeted arrangements for the real estate market recently, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment is still declining without an obvious turning point, and its role in driving the demand for the glass industry downstream of soda ash is not clear [5][6].