煤焦早报：焦煤增仓上行，现货成交回暖，等待库存验证-20250627

Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "sideways", and for coking coal is also "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - The end of the Iran-Israel conflict and the potential for a further Sino-US trade agreement in the near future are releasing external disturbance risks. Coking coal will return to its own logic. The short - term recommendation is to hold a light long position in J09 and gradually increase the position [5] - For coking coal, the spot price is stabilizing, and trading volume is gradually picking up. The start - up of mines and coal washing plants is increasing. For coke, the fourth round of spot price cuts has been implemented, and there is little room for further cuts. With the strengthening of coking coal, the cost support is gradually transmitted to coke, and the supply - demand margin of coke is improving [5] Summary by Directory Coking Coal Related Information - On June 26, White House officials stated that the US and China had reached an understanding on how to speed up the transportation of rare earths to the US [1] Spot and Futures - The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 868 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 804.5 yuan/ton (+20.5), the basis is 83.5 yuan/ton (-20.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 43 yuan/ton (+0.5) [1] Supply and Demand - The resumption of production at the mine end and the reduction of the capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises. The starting rate of 523 mines is reported at 84.49% (+0.78), the starting rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 61.34% (+3.2), and the productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 73.42% (-0.54) [2] Inventory - Upstream inventory accumulates, and downstream inventory decreases. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 499.15 million tons (+13.11), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 237.39 million tons (-14.08), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 774.66 million tons (+0.68), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 665.65 million tons (-3.88), and the port inventory is 303.31 million tons (-8.71) [2] Coke Spot and Futures - The fourth round of spot price cuts has been implemented. The price of quasi - first - class coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1220 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 1387.5 yuan/ton (+36), the basis is - 76 yuan/ton (-36), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 40.5 yuan/ton (+7.5) [3] Supply and Demand - Supply decreases, and demand slightly rebounds. The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 73.42% (-0.54), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 90.79% (+0.21), and the daily average pig iron output is 242.18 million tons (+0.57) [3] Inventory - Both upstream and downstream continue to reduce inventory, and the port inventory remains flat. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 80.93 million tons (-6.38), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 634.2 million tons (-8.64), and the port inventory is 203.11 million tons (+0.02) [3] Strategy Suggestion - The end of the Iran - Israel conflict and the potential for a Sino - US trade agreement in the near future are releasing external risks. Coking coal has shown a relatively strong trend. The short - term suggestion is to hold a light long position in J09 and gradually increase the position. In addition to the capital side, on the fundamental side, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there is any active production reduction behavior at the mine end [5]