宝城期货国债期货早报-20250627

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, and the overall view is to oscillate, with the core logic being weak macro - economic indicators and rising expectations of monetary easing [1] - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the overall view is to oscillate. The core logic is that the downside risk of treasury bond futures has eased, and there is strong support below. The medium - and long - term upward logic is solid, but short - term driving force is limited, so they will mainly oscillate in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term (within one week) view is oscillation, the medium - term (two weeks to one month) view is oscillation, the intraday view is oscillation with a strong bias, and the overall view is oscillation. The core logic is that macro - economic indicators are weak and expectations of monetary easing are rising [1] Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is oscillation with a strong bias, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the overall view is oscillation. Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated. Recently, overseas geopolitical factors have cooled, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the downside risk of treasury bonds has eased in the short term. Coupled with the central bank's net injection of liquidity in the open market, there is strong support below treasury bond futures. In terms of monetary policy expectations, May's credit and inflation data were weak, requiring a loose monetary environment for policy support, so the medium - and long - term upward logic of treasury bond futures is solid. However, subsequent policies need guidance from the important meeting in July, and short - term driving force is expected to be limited [5]