工业硅、多晶硅日评：供给端扰动，价格低位反弹-20250627

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is experiencing weak supply and demand, and the industry still faces high inventory pressure. Although the silicon price rebounded from a low level due to supply - side disturbances, the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. For industrial silicon, if the production cut is less than expected, short positions can be considered. For polysilicon, due to strong uncertainty in terminal installation and over - capacity issues that are difficult to resolve in the short term, the price is unlikely to have an upward trend in the short term, and shorting on rebounds is recommended for the medium - and long - term [1]. Summaries by Related Content Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 2.18% to 7,720 yuan/ton. Among different regions, most prices remained stable, while the average price of oxygenated 553 in some regions had small increases. For polysilicon, the prices of N - type dense material, polycrystalline secondary material, dense material, and cauliflower material remained unchanged, and the closing price of the futures main contract rose 3.56% to 31,715 yuan/ton [1]. Inventory Information - On June 26, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 542,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons compared with last week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 128,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons compared with last week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses (including non - registered warehouse receipts and spot parts) was 414,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons compared with last week [1]. Industry News - SK plans to sell its silicon - based anode factory to its US partner Group 14, selling its 75% stake in the joint - venture SK Materials Group 14 to Group 14 Technologies through in - kind payment. The joint - venture factory in South Korea is in the trial - production stage [1]. - On the evening of June 24, 2025, Jingshan Light Machinery announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary Suzhou Shengcheng Photovoltaic Equipment Co., Ltd. would invest 150 million yuan in cash in Jiangsu Runyang New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Industrial Silicon: On the supply side, the operation of silicon enterprises in the north has changed little, and the south - west production area is about to enter the wet season with lower power costs, so the enterprise operation is steadily increasing. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are continuing to cut production, and the resumption of production may be postponed; the organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but the demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. Domestic monomer enterprises' operation shows mixed changes, with the overall operation decreasing, and the demand for industrial silicon is further weakened. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream has insufficient willingness to stock up at low levels [1]. - Polysilicon: On the supply side, silicon material enterprises are maintaining production cuts, and some silicon material factories may have new capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output is expected to increase slightly, with the overall output remaining within 100,000 tons. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is generally weak, the inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials are rising, the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are continuously falling, the market demand is slowing down, and the transactions are weak [1].