五矿期货农产品早报-20250627

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is in a situation of mixed long - and short - term factors. The domestic soybean meal valuation is under pressure, while the external soybean import cost fluctuates. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the supply pressure at the upper end [2][5]. - The global oil market is expected to be volatile. Although there are some positive factors, the upside space is limited due to factors such as annual production increase expectations and weak demand [7][10]. - The domestic sugar price is likely to continue to decline in a volatile manner. The next rebound depends on significant problems in Brazilian sugar production [12][13]. - The cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Although there are some positive factors, there is a lack of strong driving force for continuous rebound [15][16]. - The egg price is expected to be weakly stable in many places, and the futures market should consider a strategy of selling on rebounds [18][20]. - The domestic pig price may rise in the north and remain stable in the south. Different trading strategies are recommended for near - term and far - term contracts [22][23]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - Market Situation: US soybeans declined slightly on Thursday. The domestic soybean meal futures dropped significantly, and the spot price fell by about 30 yuan/ton. The domestic soybean meal inventory accumulation pressure increased, and there were rumors that feed mills were trying to purchase Argentine soybean meal [2]. - Weather: The US soybean - producing areas are expected to have favorable rainfall in the next two weeks, covering most of the producing areas [3]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range of 2850 - 3020 yuan/ton for far - month contracts such as 09. Pay attention to the USDA area report on the night of next Monday [5]. Oil - Export and Production Data: Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased in June, and the production showed a mixed trend. The US soybean export net sales decreased in the week ending June 19 [7]. - Policy: Malaysia established a special committee to respond to the EU zero - deforestation law. The EPA policy is positive for the oil market [7]. - Trading Strategy: The oil market should be viewed as volatile. Although there are some positive factors, the upside space is limited [10]. Sugar - Market Data: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to rebound on Thursday. The spot price of sugar in various regions increased. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar decreased [12]. - Trading Strategy: The domestic sugar price is likely to continue to decline in a volatile manner. The next rebound depends on significant problems in Brazilian sugar production [13]. Cotton - Market Data: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to rise on Thursday. The spot price also increased. The average predicted US cotton planting area in 2025 decreased by 12.94% compared to 2024 [15]. - Trading Strategy: The cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Although there are some positive factors, there is a lack of strong driving force for continuous rebound [16]. Egg - Market Data: The national egg price was mostly stable with a few declines. The supply was generally sufficient, and the digestion speed was average [18]. - Trading Strategy: The egg price is expected to be weakly stable in many places, and the futures market should consider a strategy of selling on rebounds [20]. Pig - Market Data: The domestic pig price generally rose on the previous day. The northern market had a faster sales speed, and the southern market had less momentum in price increases [22]. - Trading Strategy: For near - term contracts such as 07 and 09, it is recommended to buy on dips before delivery. For far - term contracts such as 11 and 01, wait to sell on rebounds [23].