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五矿期货早报有色金属-20250627
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-06-27 01:48
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is influenced by factors such as the US fiscal and monetary policy expectations, geopolitical situations, and supply - demand relationships in different metal industries. Some metals may see price increases due to supply shortages and low inventory levels, while others are limited by weak consumption or over - supply expectations [2][4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price Performance: LME copper rose 1.74% to $9,896/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79,790 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 400 to 93,075 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 24,000 tons. - Market Outlook: Loose US fiscal and monetary policies boost risk appetite. Tight raw material market and low inventory may support price increases, but weakening domestic consumption limits the upside. The price may fluctuate upwards. Pay attention to import losses for potential futures structure changes. The operating range for SHFE copper is 78,800 - 80,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M it is 9,700 - 10,000 dollars/ton [2]. Aluminum - Price Performance: LME aluminum rose 0.72% to $2,585/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,660 yuan/ton. - Inventory: SHFE aluminum weighted contract open interest increased by 10,000 to 661,000 lots, and warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 43,000 tons. - Market Outlook: With the rebound of crude oil prices, the non - ferrous metals atmosphere is positive. Low inventory levels and improved demand expectations may push prices up, but the off - season and price increases limit the upside. The operating range for SHFE aluminum is 20,400 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M it is 2,540 - 2,620 dollars/ton [4]. Lead - Price Performance: SHFE lead index rose 0.23% to 17,221 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2,046.5/ton. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 50,300 tons. - Market Outlook: Although the export growth of lead - acid batteries has declined, the high concentration of long - positions in the July LME lead contract and the slow strengthening of the Cash - 3S structure support prices. However, weak domestic consumption restricts the increase of SHFE lead [5]. Zinc - Price Performance: SHFE zinc index rose 0.84% to 22,202 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2,729.5/ton. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 79,500 tons. - Market Outlook: Zinc mines are being converted into zinc ingots, with high expectations of zinc ingot production. Geopolitical disturbances may affect Iranian zinc ore exports, leading to large price fluctuations [7]. Tin - Price Performance: On June 26, 2025, SHFE tin rose 1.57% to 267,260 yuan/ton. - Supply - Demand: Supply is tight due to slow复产 in Myanmar and transportation issues. Demand is weak in the off - season. - Market Outlook: The market is in a stalemate. The price is expected to fluctuate between 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton in the domestic market and 31,000 - 35,000 dollars/ton in the LME market [8]. Nickel - Price Performance: Nickel prices rebounded with reduced positions. - Supply - Demand: Nickel ore prices may decline, nickel iron prices are under pressure, and the supply of intermediate products may improve. - Market Outlook: The oversupply of refined nickel remains, and inventory may increase again. Cost support is weakening. The operating range for SHFE nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M it is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Performance: The MMLC index rose 0.83% to 60,477 yuan. - Supply - Demand: Production increased by 1.7% to 18,767 tons, and inventory increased by 1,936 tons to 136,837 tons. - Market Outlook: High production and inventory put pressure on prices, but the positive commodity atmosphere may lead to price fluctuations. The reference range for the LC2509 contract is 60,500 - 62,100 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - Price Performance: The alumina index rose 0.96% to 2,937 yuan/ton. - Supply - Demand: Spot prices in some regions decreased, and the import window is closed. - Market Outlook: The over - capacity situation remains. Prices are expected to be anchored by costs and fluctuate weakly. The reference range for the AO2509 contract is 2,750 - 3,100 yuan/ton [15]. Stainless Steel - Price Performance: The stainless - steel contract closed at 12,635 yuan/ton, up 0.76%. - Supply - Demand: Social inventory decreased, and steel mills plan to cut production. - Market Outlook: The supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease, but the over - supply and weak demand situation persists. Prices are expected to remain weak and fluctuate [17].