Ping An Securities·2025-06-27 02:14Key Points - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly precious and industrial metals, predicting continued price increases driven by various macroeconomic factors [3][9]. - Precious metals, especially gold, are expected to benefit from a weakening US dollar credit system and ongoing geopolitical tensions, leading to a sustained upward price trend [3][9][22]. - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are anticipated to see price increases due to limited supply and low inventory levels, supported by a favorable monetary environment [3][9][63]. - Energy metals are currently in a clearing phase, with demand from sectors like electric vehicles and photovoltaics expected to remain resilient, although overall supply may still exceed demand [3][9]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with cost advantages and expected volume growth, including Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and others [3][9]. Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Review - The non-ferrous metals index showed strong performance in the first half of 2025, rising by 12.2%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which only increased by 0.7% [6]. - Precious metals led the sector, with the precious metals index rising by 33.9% during the same period, while industrial metals and energy metals saw increases of 11.2% and 8.0%, respectively [6]. Precious Metals - Gold prices accelerated in the first half of 2025, increasing by 28.2% compared to the end of 2024, driven by concerns over US debt and geopolitical tensions [17][22]. - Silver is expected to enter a phase of catch-up growth, with supply-demand dynamics indicating a persistent deficit [3][9][49]. Industrial Metals - The report highlights that copper and aluminum are poised for price increases due to constrained supply and improving demand elasticity, particularly in the context of domestic policy support [3][9][63]. - Global copper supply is projected to remain tight, with a forecasted decline in production from major mining companies [70]. Energy Metals - The energy metals sector is currently experiencing a clearing process, with demand from the electric vehicle and solar sectors expected to support prices despite an overall surplus in supply [3][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong cost advantages and expected volume growth, including Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, and others [3][9].