生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250627

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the price of live pigs will experience a period of volatile adjustment, and suggests temporarily observing the LH2509 contract [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - On June 26, there were 750 registered live pig warehouse receipts [2] - The LH2507 contract is mainly based on the regression of futures and spot prices and the game of delivery, while the far - month contracts fluctuate due to the current weight reduction being beneficial to the future market and the expected increase in future market supply [2] - The main contract (LH2509) added 733 lots today, with a position of approximately 81,800 lots, a maximum price of 14,080 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,990 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14,040 yuan/ton [2] Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3] - The short - side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the consumption peak season. The long - side logic includes the potential for an increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, and the fact that although there will be an increase in future slaughter volume, it is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for live pigs [3] Strategy Suggestions - The view is that the market will experience volatile adjustment [4] - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The current live pig spot market shows a positive triangular relationship of "increasing slaughter volume - decreasing weight - stable pig prices", indicating certain support from the demand side. The LH2509 contract is at a discount to the spot, and the current weight reduction in the breeding sector is beneficial to the 09 contract. Therefore, it is recommended to temporarily observe the LH2509 contract [4] Market Overview - On June 26, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.56 yuan/kg, a 0.55% increase from the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan also increased [6] - Among the futures contracts, the prices of the 07 and 09 contracts increased, while the prices of the 01, 03, 05, and 11 contracts decreased [6] - The main basis in Henan increased by 15% to 920 yuan/ton [6] Key Data Tracking - The report presents data such as the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [14]