尿素早评：出口消息提振，现货逐步企稳-20250627

Group 1 - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1] Group 2 - The core view is that the recent rumors of relaxed urea exports and the release of a new round of Indian tenders have boosted market sentiment. From the perspective of urea demand, June - July is still the peak season for top - dressing of northern corn, and the loosening of current export policies and price drops will stimulate speculative demand. So, the demand for urea in the next two months is not bad, and one can wait for the opportunity to go long after the spot price stabilizes [1] Group 3 Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01 was 1682 yuan/ton on June 26, down 15 yuan or 0.88% from June 25 [1] - UR05 was 1691 yuan/ton on June 26, down 14 yuan or 0.82% from June 25 [1] - UR09 was 1724 yuan/ton on June 26, down 16 yuan or 0.92% from June 25 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small Granules) - The price in Shandong was 1800 yuan/ton on June 26, up 40 yuan or 2.27% from June 25 [1] - The price in Henan was 1800 yuan/ton on June 26, up 30 yuan or 1.69% from June 25 [1] - The price in Hebei was 1800 yuan/ton on June 26, up 10 yuan or 0.56% from June 25 [1] - The price in Northeast was 1890 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] - The price in Jiangsu was 1810 yuan/ton on June 26, up 30 yuan or 1.69% from June 25 [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 109 yuan/ton on June 26, up 54 yuan from June 25 [1] - The spread of 01 - 05 was - 9 yuan/ton on June 26, down 1 yuan from June 25 [1] Upstream Costs - The anthracite price in Henan was 1080 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] - The anthracite price in Shanxi was 820 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong was 2930 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan was 2520 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] - The melamine price in Shandong was 5083 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] - The melamine price in Jiangsu was 5300 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1738 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1741 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1698 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1724 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1720 yuan/ton. The trading volume of 2509 was 233314 lots [1] Trading Strategy - On the previous trading day, UR fluctuated in a range and closed at 1724. Wait for the opportunity to go long after the spot price stabilizes [1]