甲醇日评：港口低库存支撑价格-20250627

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1] 2. Core View of the Report - After the cease - fire agreement, market risk - aversion sentiment decreased, the geopolitical premium was squeezed out, and methanol prices回调. Although the geopolitical situation may be volatile, methanol will gradually return to its fundamentals. The current domestic methanol supply - demand situation has little change, and the future impact may come from imports. Considering the impact on Iranian methanol supply, imports in July may decrease. With the support of low port inventories, the methanol price correction is expected to be limited. The 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500 yuan/ton [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - Methanol Futures Prices: MA01 closed at 2433 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.66%); MA05 closed at 2336 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.34%); MA09 closed at 2417 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (1.09%) [1] - Methanol Spot Prices: Prices in Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi, and Sichuan - Chongqing remained unchanged; the price in Hubei decreased by 45 yuan/ton (-1.89%), and the price in Inner Mongolia decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.50%); the price in Taicang increased by 120 yuan/ton (4.54%) [1] - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 104 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - Coal Spot Prices: The price of Ordos Q5500 and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged, while the price of Datong Q5500 increased by 5 yuan/ton (1.03%) [1] - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 3.3 Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profit: Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 6.3 yuan/ton (-1.26%); natural gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged [1] - Downstream Profit of Methanol: The profit of Northwest MTO increased by 27.6 yuan/ton (5.23%); the profit of East China MTO decreased by 202 yuan/ton (-15.16%); the profit of acetic acid decreased by 33.27 yuan/ton (-10.27%); the profit of MTBE decreased by 41 yuan/ton (-27.98%); the profit of formaldehyde remained unchanged [1] 3.4 Important Information - Domestic Futures: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2384 yuan/ton, closing at 2417 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1620777 lots and an open interest of 857159, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - Foreign Information: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 280 - 290 US dollars/ton. There are few fixed - price offers. The reference negotiation for far - future non - Iranian shipments is at +1.8 - 2%, and most of the formula - price negotiations this week are for the south. The far - future non - Iranian shipments were traded at +2 - 2.1%. In other Middle - East regions, the intended shipping price of a few far - future shipments is at +1.9%, but market participants are mostly on the sidelines, waiting for the resumption of a methanol plant in a Middle - East country [1]