铅锌日评20250627：反弹持续性有限-20250627

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For lead, the price has been rising due to support from raw materials and reduced production in the secondary lead sector, but the downstream market has not entered the peak season yet, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation, so the upward momentum of the lead price is limited, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 17,500 yuan/ton [1] - For zinc, the short - term zinc price is expected to fluctuate strongly in a narrow range, but the rebound space may be limited. Attention should be paid to the trading opportunities after the elimination of favorable factors [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.44% compared with the previous day, and the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures rose by 0.35% compared with the previous day. The basis of Shanghai lead was - 225 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between different contracts of Shanghai lead futures showed various changes, such as the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract being - 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 52,643 lots, an increase of 45.33%, and the open interest was 51,182 lots, an increase of 237.77%. The trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.03, a decrease of 56.97% [1] Inventory - The LME inventory remained unchanged at 273,250 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1.37% to 45,278 tons. As of June 26, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions was 56,000 tons, remaining unchanged compared with June 19 and increasing by more than 300 tons compared with June 23 [1] Fundamental Information - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and the processing fee is likely to rise. The operation of primary lead is stable with a slight increase. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries has been rising, and the supply of recyclers is limited. Some secondary lead smelters have reduced or suspended production due to raw material shortages or cost inversion, and the finished product inventory of secondary lead is increasing [1] - The demand side is gradually shifting from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream procurement is expected to improve, which may reduce the drag on the lead price [1] Zinc Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.27% compared with the previous day, and the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures rose by 0.88% compared with the previous day. The basis of Shanghai zinc was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton [1] - The spreads between different contracts of Shanghai zinc futures and the spreads in different regions showed various changes, such as the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract being 125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 168,109 lots, an increase of 6.04%, and the open interest was 135,638 lots, an increase of 4.45%. The trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.24, an increase of 1.53% [1] Inventory - The LME inventory remained unchanged at 119,850 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 9.71% to 6,473 tons. As of June 26, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven regions was 79,500 tons, a decrease of 0.01 tons compared with June 19 and an increase of 0.17 tons compared with June 23 [1] Fundamental Information - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and the zinc concentrate processing fee has continued to rise. The raw material shortage has less impact on smelter production, and the cost support has weakened. The downstream maintains rigid demand for zinc ingots [1] - Recently, the downstream procurement sentiment has improved after the zinc price decline, and the macro - sentiment is positive. The strike at Nexa's Cajamarquilla zinc smelter has increased market concerns about future supply, pushing up the zinc price [1]