国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250627

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series by Guotai Junan Futures on June 27, 2025, covering multiple commodities in the black series [1]. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide - range fluctuations boosted by spot sentiment [2][11]. - Coke is expected to be volatile and on a stronger trend as sentiment is released [2][14]. - Coking coal is expected to be volatile and on a stronger trend as inspection disturbances continue to ferment [2][15]. - Steam coal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations as demand is yet to be released [2][19]. - Logs are expected to see intensified gaming as the main contract approaches delivery [2][23]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The previous day's futures price closed at 705.5 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton, or 0.43%. The open - interest decreased by 17,723 lots. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores were mostly stable. The basis and spreads had minor changes [4]. - Macro and Industry News: On June 26, the US dollar index fell below 97.0, down 0.72% intraday, hitting a new low since February 2022 [4]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: Rebar RB2510 closed at 2,973 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton, or 0.10%. Hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,103 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, or 0.39%. Spot prices in different regions had minor changes. The basis and spreads also changed [7]. - Macro and Industry News: On June 26, steel output increased, total inventory increased slightly, and apparent demand decreased. In mid - June, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased slightly. In May, exports of billets, rebars, and wire rods increased significantly. In May 2025, national steel production had different trends [8][9]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: Futures prices of different contracts had small increases. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia increased. The basis and spreads changed [11]. - Macro and Industry News: There were price quotes for different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions. UMK's July 2025 manganese ore quotation to China decreased. Xinyu Iron and Steel's new ferrosilicon purchase price increased [12]. - Trend Intensity: 1 for both, indicating a slightly stronger trend [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Coking coal JM2509 closed at 819.5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, or 1.86%. Coke J2509 closed at 1,395.5 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton, or 0.58%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke had minor changes. The basis and spreads changed [15]. - Price and Position: There were quotes for coking coal in northern ports and CCI metallurgical coal indices. On June 26, the long - position of coking coal JM2509 increased more than the short - position, while the long - position of coke J2509 decreased and the short - position increased [15][17]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for coke and 1 for coking coal, indicating a neutral trend for coke and a slightly stronger trend for coking coal [17]. Steam Coal - Previous Day's Trading: The ZC2507 contract had no trading. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price [20]. - Fundamentals: There were quotes for imported steam coal at southern ports and domestic steam coal at production areas. On June 26, the long - and short - positions of the ZC2507 contract remained unchanged [21]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [22]. Logs - Fundamentals: The prices, trading volumes, and open - interests of different contracts had various changes. Spot prices of different types of logs in different regions were mostly stable [23]. - Macro and Industry News: On June 26, the US dollar index fell below 97.0, down 0.72% intraday, hitting a new low since February 2022 [25]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [25].