摩根大通：违背预期_房地产泡沫尚未破裂

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the housing market but discusses various trends and dynamics affecting housing prices and affordability globally. Core Insights - Global home price gains persist despite rising policy rates, although the pace of home price appreciation is slowing [20] - The global housing affordability crisis is deepening due to supply/demand imbalances and elevated rents [21] - The US housing market is characterized as frozen, with declining demand and homebuilder sentiment alongside high mortgage rates [23] - Shelter inflation is likely to return to pre-pandemic levels, but rising rents have compounded cost-of-living challenges [20] - Demographics and household formation support long-term demand, and any housing correction in the short term would likely be modest [20] Summary by Sections Global Housing Market Trends - Home prices have increased by 37% on average over the past decade, with significant growth recorded in countries like Iceland, Portugal, and Hungary [32] - The OECD reports that real home prices have increased by 16% relative to income [32] - The global housing affordability crisis is now a common theme, with many OECD countries facing worse issues than the US [49][56] US Housing Market Dynamics - The US housing market is experiencing a significant decline in demand, with home sales in 2024 being the lowest since 1995 [23] - Housing starts fell approximately 9.8% in May, and the issuance of building permits hit a five-year low [23] - The median sales price of existing homes rose by 1.8% despite fewer home sales [23] Affordability Challenges - Housing affordability in the US has declined almost 30% since December 2021, nearing levels last seen in the late 1980s [51] - The housing affordability index in the US plunged from about 150 in 2021 to the mid-80s by 2024 [49] - Many households are spending over 40% of their income on housing, indicating a severe affordability crisis [51] Regional Disparities - The report highlights divergent trends across the US, with densely populated urban centers facing decreases in demand while suburban and rural areas see demand increases [84] - The Sunbelt region is experiencing higher vacancies and an oversupply of luxury apartments compared to coastal markets [88] Future Outlook - Despite the current challenges, the report suggests that risks to financial stability from the housing market appear manageable [21] - The report anticipates that any housing correction in the short term would likely be modest due to ongoing demographic support for demand [20]