高盛：小米-YU7 超预期发布，巩固高端汽车领导地位

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) with a 12-month target price of HK$69.00, representing an upside of 21.3% from the current price of HK$56.90 [1]. Core Insights - The launch of the YU7, a premium electric SUV, exceeded market expectations with 289,000 orders within the first hour, indicating strong consumer demand and solidifying Xiaomi's leadership in the premium auto market in China [1][2]. - The YU7 series is positioned to compete effectively against top premium SUVs like the Tesla Model Y, offering superior size, performance, and range [2]. - Xiaomi is expanding its ecosystem with the introduction of AI Glasses, aiming to capture a significant share of the smart glasses market in China [16]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Xiaomi are projected to grow significantly, with expected revenues of Rmb365.9 billion in 2024, Rmb481.1 billion in 2025, Rmb624.6 billion in 2026, and Rmb746.4 billion in 2027 [4][14]. - Adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 have been raised by 1-4% due to stronger operating leverage from the EV segment [18]. - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27% for revenue and 40% for net profit from 2024 to 2027 [18]. Product and Market Positioning - The YU7 is priced competitively at Rmb253.5k for the standard version, Rmb279.9k for the Pro, and Rmb329.9k for the Max, aligning with market expectations and enhancing its competitive edge [2]. - The YU7 series features advanced technology, including an 800V platform and a long-range battery, with the standard version offering an exceptional 835 km range [29][31]. - Xiaomi's strategy includes partnerships with major automotive players to enhance its Human x Car x Home ecosystem, further strengthening brand appeal [32]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, with a target price of HK$69, reflecting higher valuations attributed to the EV and new initiatives segment [19][26]. - Key financial ratios include a projected P/E of 16.6 for 2024, increasing to 32.5 in 2025, and a P/B of 2.4 in 2024, indicating a strong growth outlook [10]. Market Performance - Xiaomi's stock has shown significant price performance, with an absolute increase of 219.3% over the past 12 months, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [12]. - The YU7's successful launch and the ongoing demand for the SU7 have positioned Xiaomi as a leading player in the premium automotive segment in China [38].