Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - The supply side of new energy metals has seen rumors of disruptions, leading to a weak rebound in prices. In the short - to - medium term, the price trend is weak, but a weak rebound has occurred as prices fall to important cost areas. For long - term, low prices may accelerate the capacity clearance of domestically self - priced varieties. [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Industrial Silicon - Information Analysis: As of June 26, the price decline of industrial silicon slowed. Domestic inventory increased by 1.7% month - on - month to 438,500 tons. May production was 308,000 tons, a 2.3% month - on - month increase but a 24.6% year - on - year decrease. May exports were 55,652 tons, an 8% month - on - month and 22.5% year - on - year decrease. May new photovoltaic installations were 92.9GW, a 105.5% month - on - month and 388% year - on - year increase. [4] - Main Logic: Supply - side news is disturbing, with northwest production rising and southwest entering the wet season. Demand from downstream industries is still weak, and social inventory continues to accumulate. However, the faster decline in futures prices has made the futures more cost - effective, leading to faster clearance of warehouse receipts, which supports the near - month contract. [4] - Outlook: Industrial silicon prices will rebound in the short term, but the overall surplus pattern remains unchanged. The subsequent price will show an oscillatory trend. [4] Polysilicon - Information Analysis: The N - type re - feedstock transaction price is between 32,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 34,400 yuan/ton. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 2,600 lots. May exports were 2,097.6 tons, a 66.2% month - on - month increase but a 30% year - on - year decrease. May imports were 793 tons, a 16.9% month - on - month decrease. 1 - 5 months of new photovoltaic installations were 197.85GW, a 150% year - on - year increase. [5] - Main Logic: Supply - side disturbances have boosted prices. Production is currently low, and there is a risk of weakening demand in the second half of the year due to the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period. [6] - Outlook: Polysilicon prices will show wide - range oscillations. [7] Lithium Carbonate - Information Analysis: On June 26, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.02% to 61,500 yuan, and the total position decreased by 10,604 lots to 619,950 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 400 yuan to 60,600 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade increased by 400 yuan to 59,000 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 620 US dollars/ton. On June 24, the first batch of lithium concentrate from the Ganfeng Goulamina project in Mali was shipped. [7] - Main Logic: The current market supply and demand lack drivers, and prices fluctuate with sentiment. Supply is increasing, and demand is relatively flat. Social inventory is accumulating, and warehouse receipt inventory clearance has slowed down. [8] - Outlook: Prices will oscillate in the short term. [8]
新能源观点:供应端再现扰动传闻,新能源金属价格弱反弹-20250627
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-06-27 03:04