国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250627

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views - Gold: Geopolitical ceasefire, with a trend strength of 1; Silver: Continuing to surge, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][10] - Copper: Stronger LME copper spot prices support the price, trend strength is 1 [2][12][14] - Aluminum: Bullish, Alumina: Sharp rebound, Aluminum alloy: Bullish oscillation, trend strengths are 1, 0, 0 respectively [2][15][17] - Zinc: Short - term bullish, trend strength is 1 [2][18] - Lead: Bullish, trend strength is 1 [2][20][21] - Tin: Tight present but weak future expectations, trend strength is 0 [2][23][27] - Nickel: Loosening expectations at the distal nickel ore end, and the smelting end limits the upside potential; Stainless steel: Weakening supply and demand, steel prices oscillating at low levels, trend strengths are both 0 [2][28][31] - Lithium carbonate: Increasing warehouse receipts but low total volume, short - term oscillating, trend strength is 0 [2][32][34] - Industrial silicon: Affected by production cut news, pay attention to the upside space; Polysilicon: Market sentiment fermenting, also pay attention to the upside space, trend strengths are both 0 [2][35][38] - Iron ore: Repeated expectations, range - bound oscillation, trend strength is 0 [2][39][40] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation; Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation, trend strengths are both 0 [2][42][45] - Ferrosilicon: Spot sentiment boosting, wide - range oscillation; Silicomanganese: Spot sentiment boosting, wide - range oscillation, trend strengths are both 1 [2][47][49] - Coke: Releasing sentiment, bullish oscillation; Coking coal: Inspection disturbances continuing to ferment, bullish oscillation, trend strengths are 0 and 1 respectively [2][50][53] - Steam coal: Demand yet to be released, wide - range oscillation, trend strength is 0 [2][55][58] - Log: As the main contract approaches delivery, the game intensifies, trend strength is 0 [2][59][61] - p - Xylene: Month - spread reverse arbitrage; PTA: Month - spread reverse arbitrage; MEG: Unilateral weakening [2][62][63] Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Fundamentals: For gold, the closing price of SHFE Gold 2508 was 775.28, with a daily increase of 0.17%, and the night - session closing price was 774.06, with a night - session increase of 0.12%. For silver, the closing price of SHFE Silver 2508 was 8796, with a daily increase of 0.80%, and the night - session closing price was 8821.00, with a night - session increase of 0.88% [6] - News: Fed officials stated they are not ready to support a rate cut in the July meeting; Trump won't decide on the next Fed chairman soon [7][11] Copper - Fundamentals: The closing price of SHFE Copper main contract was 78,890, with a daily increase of 0.27%, and the night - session closing price was 79790, with a night - session increase of 1.14%. LME copper inventories decreased by 400 to 93,075, and the LME copper cash - 3M spread widened to 319.83 [12] - News: India's new copper smelter starts processing ore; JX Metal in Japan cuts refined copper production; China's May copper ore imports decreased by 17.55% month - on - month [12][14] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Fundamentals: The closing price of SHFE Aluminum main contract was 20445, and the LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2585. The closing price of SHFE Alumina main contract was 2948, and the closing price of Aluminum alloy main contract was 19715 [15] - News: The EU may lower tariffs on the US to reach a trade agreement [17] Zinc - Fundamentals: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract was 22240, with a daily increase of 0.88%. LME zinc inventories decreased by 3025 to 119850 [18] - News: Not mentioned Lead - Fundamentals: The closing price of SHFE Lead main contract was 17225, with a daily increase of 0.20%. LME lead inventories decreased by 2000 to 273250 [20] - News: Fed officials not ready to support a rate cut in July; Trump won't decide on the next Fed chairman soon [21] Tin - Fundamentals: The closing price of SHFE Tin main contract was 267,270, with a daily increase of 1.62%. The SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 500 to 265,300 [24] - News: Fed officials not ready to support a rate cut in July; Trump won't decide on the next Fed chairman soon [25] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The closing price of SHFE Nickel main contract was 120,830, and the closing price of Stainless steel main contract was 12,635 [28] - News: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron project enters trial production; A nickel smelter in Indonesia resumes production; An Indonesian cold - rolling mill may continue maintenance [28][31] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamentals: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 61,580. The battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 60,600, up 400 [32] - News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose 434 to 60745 [33] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamentals: The closing price of Si2509 was 7,720, and the closing price of PS2508 was 31,715 [36] - News: Longi Green Energy's solar plant in Indonesia starts operation [36] Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The closing price of the 12509 contract was 705.5, with a daily increase of 0.43%. The price of PB ore was 701.0, unchanged [39] - News: The US dollar index fell below 97.0, hitting a new low since February 2022 [39] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - Fundamentals: The closing price of RB2510 was 2,973, with a daily increase of 0.10%, and the closing price of HC2510 was 3,103, with a daily increase of 0.39% [43] - News: Steel production, inventory, and export data are released; a military parade will be held in Beijing [44][45] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Fundamentals: The closing price of Ferrosilicon 2508 was 5422, and the closing price of Manganese Silicon 2508 was 5672 [47] - News: The prices of Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon in the spot market increased [47][48] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: The closing price of JM2509 was 819.5, with a daily increase of 1.86%, and the closing price of J2509 was 1395.5, with a daily increase of 0.58% [51] - News: Northern port coking coal prices are reported; CCI metallurgical coal index changes [51][52] Steam Coal - Fundamentals: The ZC2507 contract had no trading, with a previous opening price of 931.6000 [56] - News: Southern port and domestic origin prices of steam coal are reported [57] Log - Fundamentals: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 818, with a daily increase of 0.9% [59] - News: The US dollar index fell below 97.0 [61] p - Xylene, PTA, and MEG - Fundamentals: Not mentioned - News: Not mentioned