国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工-20250627

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities for each commodity, which can be regarded as a form of short - term investment guidance: - Positive Outlook: Rubber (Trend intensity: 1) [13] - Negative Outlook: PP (Trend intensity: -1), Benzene (Trend intensity: -1) [37][58] - Neutral Outlook: Other commodities such as PX, PTA, MEG, etc. (Trend intensity: 0) [11] 2. Core Views of the Report - PX, PTA: Cost collapses, valuations decline, and month - spread reverse arbitrage is recommended. For PTA, the market is turning into a stockpiling pattern, and the long - PX short - PTA position should be held [11]. - MEG: The upside space may be limited. With the return of Iranian ethylene glycol plants and the concentrated restart of domestic coal - based plants, ethylene glycol is expected to be weak in the medium term [11]. - Rubber: It is expected to be oscillating strongly due to factors such as the recovery of overseas tapping operations and changes in import volume [12]. - Synthetic Rubber: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the medium term, due to high supply and supply growth exceeding demand growth, the fundamental pressure is still high [16]. - Asphalt: It is in a weak oscillation state, with domestic factory and social inventories accumulating [20]. - LLDPE: In the short term, it will oscillate. Although geopolitical issues are uncertain, the supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak [33]. - PP: The spot market oscillates, and the trading volume is average. The trend is weak due to factors such as weak demand and low trading enthusiasm [37]. - Caustic Soda: The near - term contract will make up for the premium, and there will be a short - term rebound. In the second half of the year, the high - profit and high - output pattern will affect the market, and shorting the profit of caustic soda will be the main strategy [39]. - Pulp: It will oscillate. The import pulp market shows a decline in both futures and spot prices, affected by factors such as weak demand and high inventory [43]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable, with minor price adjustments in some regions [48]. - Methanol: It will oscillate in the short term. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the market is affected by macro factors and fundamentals [50]. - Urea: It will oscillate in the short term. In the medium term, supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main contradictions [57]. - Benzene: It will oscillate in the short term. In the second half of the year, the supply will increase significantly, and the demand will be weak, leading to a decline in profit [60]. - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change, and it is expected to be weakly adjusted in the short term [64]. - LPG: The spot is firm, and the market structure is strengthening. The market is affected by factors such as changes in Saudi CP expectations and device maintenance [66]. - PVC: It is strong in the short term but has limited upside space. The high - output and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the export sustainability is to be observed [78]. - Fuel Oil: The night - session adjusts narrowly, and the short - term volatility decreases. Low - sulfur fuel oil is weak in the short term, and the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market oscillates at a high level [81]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): It will oscillate in the short term, affected by factors such as freight rates and market supply and demand [83]. 3. Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: An East China factory's 1 million - ton PX unit has started a one - month maintenance. The PX price rebounded, and the night - session naphtha price declined [8]. - PTA: Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 - million - ton unit reduced its load, and Honggang Petrochemical's 2.5 - million - ton unit was put into production. The PTA market is turning into a stockpiling pattern [9]. - MEG: An Iranian 450,000 - ton/year MEG unit plans to restart this weekend, and another 500,000 - ton/year unit plans to restart next week. The overall start - up load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland has decreased [9]. Rubber - The trading center of the imported rubber market has weakened, and the domestic natural rubber spot price has adjusted narrowly. The overseas tapping operations are gradually recovering, and the raw material purchase price has decreased [14]. - In May 2025, China's natural rubber import volume decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire sample enterprises has changed [15]. Synthetic Rubber - As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese high - cis polybutadiene rubber sample enterprises increased. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports decreased slightly [16]. - In the short term, due to geopolitical instability and strong macro - sentiment, the polybutadiene rubber is expected to oscillate [18]. Asphalt - As of June 26, 2025, the inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample factories increased by 2.5% compared with June 23, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses increased by 0.4% [31]. - The domestic asphalt production increased by 2.4% week - on - week and 21.5% year - on - year [31]. LLDPE - This week, the domestic PE market mostly weakened. The Middle East geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the crude oil market has fallen back, affecting the market sentiment of related products [32]. - The supply pressure of PE in the 2025 09 contract is high, and the demand is weak, especially in the shed film industry [33]. PP - This morning, the domestic PP market was narrowly sorted. The PP futures' upward trend had limited support for the spot market, and downstream factories were cautious in purchasing [37]. Caustic Soda - The purchase price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong has been continuously reduced, and most enterprises' prices have followed the decline [39]. - The caustic soda futures price has continued to fall due to the reduction of the purchase price by Shandong alumina enterprises. However, the 07 contract will face delivery, and the short - term market may rebound [39]. Pulp - This period, the imported pulp market has seen a decline in both futures and spot prices. The reasons include the decline in the futures price, weak demand, and high supply pressure [46]. Glass - The price of domestic float glass original sheets was generally stable, with slight adjustments in some areas [48]. Methanol - The spot price of the port methanol market has mostly increased, and the inventory has increased significantly. The inland market has continued to rise, and some buyers have actively replenished their stocks [52]. Urea - As of June 25, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased by 3.53% week - on - week. The domestic urea market is affected by sentiment and is weakly oscillating [56]. - In the short term, the urea spot price shows some resilience, but in the medium term, supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main contradictions [57]. Benzene - In 2025, the supply pressure of pure benzene is high, with increased domestic production and imports. The demand structure has changed significantly, and the inventory remains high [59]. - In the first half of the year, benzene maintained a high - profit, high - start - up, and low - inventory pattern, but in the second half of the year, the pattern will reverse [60]. Soda Ash - The domestic soda ash market continues to be weak, with a downward trading center. The supply is oscillating and decreasing, and the downstream demand is lukewarm [64]. LPG - On June 25, 2025, the expected prices of Saudi CP in July and August decreased. The PDH, MTBE, and alkylation start - up rates have changed [68]. - There are many domestic LPG factory and PDH device maintenance plans [74]. PVC - The domestic PVC spot market price has been narrowly adjusted. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed, with increased enterprise maintenance, low demand, high inventory, and mainly export delivery [78]. - The high - output and high - inventory structure of PVC is difficult to change in the short term, and the export sustainability is to be observed [78]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The night - session of fuel oil adjusted narrowly, and the short - term volatility decreased. Low - sulfur fuel oil is weak in the short term, and the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market oscillates at a high level [81]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) will oscillate in the short term. There are changes in freight rates, such as the increase in the SCFIS European route and the decrease in the SCFIS US - West route [83].