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中信期货晨报:市场情绪偏暖,商品多数上涨-20250627
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-06-27 03:21
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economy maintains a stable pattern, with domestic assets presenting mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may intensify short - term market fluctuations and disrupt risk preferences. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: In June, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, with a more cautious outlook on下半年 rate cuts. US economic data in May was weak, and the economic recovery is limited by geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties. Rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to send hawkish signals [7]. - Domestic Macro: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, strengthening policy expectations for the second half of the year. In May, fixed - asset investment expanded, manufacturing investment grew rapidly, and the service industry accelerated. Industrial and consumer data also showed positive growth [7]. - Asset Views: Domestic assets offer structural opportunities, driven by policies in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations, while the long - term weak US dollar pattern persists. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation of gold [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: Funds are releasing congestion, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Key points to watch include end - of - day stock stampedes and deterioration of US dollar liquidity [8]. - Stock Index Options: Sellers should wait for the inflection point of declining volatility, and the market is expected to fluctuate. The continuous deterioration of option liquidity is a concern [8]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Due to better - than - expected progress in Sino - US negotiations, precious metals will continue to adjust in the short term. Key points include Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, and the market is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. The market is expected to fluctuate, and key points include tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel Products: The macro sentiment has improved, but contradictions are accumulating. The market is expected to fluctuate, and key points include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production [8]. - Iron Ore: Molten iron production has slightly increased, and prices are fluctuating. Key points include overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics [8]. - Coke: Pessimistic sentiment has faded, and prices are stable. Key points include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - Coking Coal: Transaction volume has improved, but confidence is still insufficient. Key points include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - Silicon Iron: Cost expectations have improved, and the market performance is strong. Key points include raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - Manganese Silicon: Cost disturbances have emerged again, and the market performance is strong. Key points include cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - Glass: Supply disturbances have affected sentiment, and production and sales have weakened. The key point is spot production and sales [8]. - Soda Ash: Intermediate inventory has decreased, and the market is under pressure. The key point is soda ash inventory, and the market is expected to decline with fluctuations [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The US dollar index is weak, and copper prices are at a high level. Key points include supply disturbances, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, and less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand [8]. - Alumina: The number of warehouse receipts is low, and the alumina market has risen. Key points include unexpected delays in ore resumption, excessive electrolytic aluminum resumption, and extreme sector trends [8]. - Aluminum: Low inventory and high premiums have pushed up aluminum prices. Key points include macro risks, supply disturbances, and less - than - expected demand [8]. - Zinc: The supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities. Key points include macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations [8]. - Lead: Cost support has strengthened again, and the downside of lead prices is limited. Key points include supply - side disturbances and slowdown in battery exports [8]. - Nickel: Supply and demand are under pressure, and nickel prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Key points include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and insufficient supply release [8]. - Stainless Steel: Nickel - iron prices continue to decline, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [8]. - Tin: Spot transactions are dull, and tin prices are fluctuating. Key points include expectations of Wa State's resumption of production and demand improvement [8]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply is continuously increasing, and silicon prices are under pressure. Key points include unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: Warehouse receipts have significantly decreased, and price fluctuations should be watched out for. Key points include less - than - expected demand, supply disturbances, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: US inventory pressure has eased, and short - term geopolitical disturbances should be watched. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Key points include OPEC+ production policies and Middle East geopolitical situations [10]. - LPG: Geopolitical tensions have eased, and the market is weakly fluctuating. Key points include cost developments of crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - Asphalt: The expectation of increased production is strong, and asphalt prices are expected to follow crude oil down. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations, and the key point is unexpected demand [10]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Israel has resumed gas field production, and fuel oil prices may continue to be under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations, and key points include crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices are expected to follow crude oil down. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations, and key points include crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - Methanol: Tensions between Iran and Israel have eased, and the market is fluctuating. Key points include macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10]. - Urea: Exports are used to balance domestic supply - demand differences, and the market may be slightly stronger in the short term. The market is expected to rise with fluctuations. Key points include market transactions, policy trends, and demand fulfillment [10]. - Ethylene Glycol: Rising ethylene prices have boosted ethylene derivatives, and the market is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The key point is ethylene glycol terminal demand [10]. - PX: Supply is tight, and geopolitical developments should be watched. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include crude oil fluctuations and downstream device abnormalities [10]. - PTA: Supply - demand has weakened marginally, but the current situation is okay and costs are strong. The market is expected to fluctuate. The key point is polyester production [10]. - Short - Fiber: The short - fiber industry is healthy, and spot processing fees have slightly increased. The market is expected to rise with fluctuations. The key point is terminal textile and clothing exports [10]. - Bottle Chips: The market follows raw materials, and the industry is waiting for production cuts. The market is expected to fluctuate. The key point is future bottle - chip start - up [10]. - PP: Crude oil prices have fallen, and the market is fluctuating. Key points include crude oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - Plastic: Geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is fluctuating. Key points include crude oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - Styrene: Geopolitical tensions have cooled down, and the market is expected to decline. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Key points include crude oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - PVC: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, the market is fluctuating. Key points include expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - Caustic Soda: Dynamic costs have increased, and the market is temporarily fluctuating. Key points include market sentiment, start - up, and demand [10]. - Oils and Fats: The sustainability of the rebound should be watched, and the weather in US soybean - producing areas is good. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include South American soybean harvest, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - Protein Meal: The expectation of soybean meal imports has hit the market, and the support at the bottom should be watched. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include US soybean area and weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - Corn/Starch: The market is fluctuating, and spot prices are still firm. Key points include less - than - expected demand, macro - situation, and weather [10]. - Pigs: Upstream price - holding sentiment is strong, and demand is in the off - season. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Rubber: A warm macro - environment has driven up rubber prices. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - Synthetic Rubber: The market's follow - up increase is limited. The key point is significant crude oil price fluctuations [10]. - Pulp: The weak trend remains unchanged. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Key points include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - Cotton: Cotton prices continue to rebound with increased positions. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include demand and output [10]. - Sugar: The domestic and international markets are differentiated, and the domestic market is rebounding with fluctuations. The key point is abnormal weather [10]. - Logs: There are no obvious fundamental contradictions, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Key points include shipment volume and dispatch volume [10].