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PVC:短期偏强,但上方空间有限
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-06-27 03:21

Report Investment Rating - The trend strength of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [-2 indicates the most bearish, 2 indicates the most bullish] [4] Core View - PVC is short - term bullish but has limited upside potential. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to alleviate, and the market will still short the chlor - alkali profit in the later stage [1][2] Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price of PVC is 4871, the East China spot price is 4750, the basis is - 121, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 73 [1] Spot News - The domestic PVC spot market price has a narrow adjustment, with a range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The supply - demand fundamentals remain unchanged. This week, enterprise maintenance has increased, production has slightly decreased, the downstream market is in the off - season, industry inventory remains high, foreign trade exports are mainly for delivery, the futures market is pulled up by the strong fluctuations of sectors such as black, but market transactions remain light [1] Market Condition Analysis - Crude oil prices are still strong, and ethylene - based costs provide support, making PVC short - term bullish [2] - The high - production structure is difficult to change in the short term. PVC maintenance volume is lower than the same period in 2023. Chlor - alkali costs are declining, and the demand for caustic soda in 2025 has good support, maintaining high profits. The chlor - alkali industry chain compensates for chlorine with alkali, increasing the difficulty of large - scale production cuts due to losses. In addition, there will be more capacity put into production, especially in June - July, with an expected new capacity of 1.1 million tons [2] - The pressure of high inventory persists, and export demand can only relieve it temporarily. In 2025, the competition pressure in the PVC export market has increased. Exports are still affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. India's BIS policy for PVC imports may be postponed for 6 months, and the Indian Trade Remedy Authority may make a final decision on the anti - dumping investigation of imported PVC in the first half of July. Domestically, the demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, and enterprises have low willingness to stock up [2]