Group 1: Energy - Brent crude oil's 08 contract rose slightly by 0.31%. The Iran - IAEA cooperation is suspended, and the Iran - US negotiation has no definite news. In the third - quarter peak season, the global oil inventory accumulation will narrow, but the loose situation is hard to change fundamentally under OPEC+ production increase pressure. Crude oil will run weakly with short - term fluctuations [1]. - Gold continued to adjust overnight, and silver was strong following non - ferrous metals. With the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, market risk appetite improved. Market focus will shift to tariff negotiations and the Fed [2]. Group 2: Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices rose overnight. Overseas investment banks emphasized high import tariffs on copper. The market is concerned about the US trade negotiations in July, and the Fed's July interest - rate cut rhythm is also a focus. Short - term, Shanghai copper may rise to 81,000 yuan, and long - term, high - level short - allocation is recommended [3]. - Aluminum followed non - ferrous metals and was strong. Macro risk appetite improved, but the industrial level weakened slightly. The market has large differences, and short - selling opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread can be concerned [4]. - Alumina spot transactions were few. The northern spot index fell below 3,100 yuan, and overseas transactions rose slightly to $380. The domestic production capacity is in an over - supply state, and short - selling on rebounds is the main strategy [5]. - Cast aluminum alloy rose slightly following aluminum. The price difference between aluminum and cast aluminum alloy is large, and if the spread between AL2511 and AD2511 expands, a long - AD and short - AL strategy can be considered [6]. - Zinc prices strengthened due to a strike at a zinc smelter, but the domestic zinc smelting capacity is still in surplus. It is advisable to seize short - allocation opportunities in the range of 22,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Nickel rebounded sharply. The impact of the loading progress of Philippine nickel mines on supply is limited, but the pressure on the mine end increases. Nickel iron inventory increased, and pure nickel inventory decreased. Short - term, it is advisable to wait and see [9]. - Tin prices rose. Overseas tin inventory decreased, and the domestic tin raw material supply is strong. Technically, it is advisable to participate in short - selling of far - month contracts in the range of 272,000 - 273,000 yuan [10]. Group 3: Chemicals - Lithium carbonate futures prices rebounded. The mentality of traders changed positively, and the bottom - fishing sentiment continued. The decline rate of Australian ore prices slowed down. Short - term, it will fluctuate [11]. - Industrial silicon futures prices rose and then fell. The market was affected by rumors of factory shutdowns and the rise of coking coal prices. The demand has marginal growth, and the upward space is limited [12]. - Polysilicon futures rebounded from a low level. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. The market is expected to fluctuate and repair near the key position of 30,000 yuan [13]. - Fuel oil (FU) was weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil (LU). The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is affected by high cracking valuations, while the cracking of LU rebounded from a low level [21]. - Asphalt supply may be compressed, and the terminal demand is expected to be boosted. The market is relatively strong [22]. - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has a relatively strong demand in the short - term, but the supply pressure is increasing. The market will fluctuate after the geopolitical impact fades [23]. - Urea's agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season, but there is still some rigid demand. The export policy is relaxed, and the price will fluctuate strongly in the short - term [24]. - Methanol's import supply reduction expectation failed, but the port inventory decreased significantly. The market will sort out in the short - term [25]. - PVC cost increased, and the supply is still high. The demand is weak, and the long - term price will fluctuate at a low level. Caustic soda is strong at night, but the long - term price is expected to remain low [26]. - PX and PTA were boosted by the rebound of oil prices but are expected to fluctuate narrowly. The supply is expected to increase in the medium - term, and the basis and monthly spread may be under pressure [27]. - Ethylene glycol prices fell and then slowed down. The supply disturbance weakened, and the demand is expected to decline. The price will fluctuate at the bottom [28]. - Short - fiber inventory decreased, and the supply - demand situation is improving, but the profit is weakening. Bottle - chip inventory increased, and the processing margin is weakening. A parking plan in July may help repair the margin, but it should be treated with caution [29]. Group 4: Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices strengthened at night. The demand for rebar is stable, and the inventory decline slows down. The demand for hot - rolled coil decreases, and the inventory accumulates slightly. The market will fluctuate, and the terminal demand and policies should be concerned [14]. - Iron ore prices rose overnight. The supply is under increasing pressure, and the demand has some resilience. The market is expected to fluctuate [15]. - Coke prices rose significantly. The market has expectations of a price increase. The inventory decreased, and the price may have an upward driving force [16]. - Coking coal prices rose significantly. The policy may strengthen the control of over - production, and the inventory decreased. The price may fluctuate strongly [17]. - Manganese silicon price volatility increased. The inventory decreased, and the production began to rise. Short - term, it is bullish [18]. - Silicon iron prices fluctuated upward. The demand is acceptable, and the supply decreased. The inventory decreased, and short - term, it is bullish [19]. Group 5: Shipping - The spot market of the container shipping index (European line) has no clear positive news. The far - month market may be affected by the resumption of shipping expectations after the easing of the Middle East situation [20]. Group 6: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal: Soybean meal futures fell 0.37% overnight. The drought in the US soybean - producing areas improved. The domestic spot price fell, and the inventory increased. The market will fluctuate before the planting area report [33]. - Soybean oil and palm oil: US soybeans are weak. The biodiesel development may support vegetable oil prices. Long - term, it is advisable to allocate vegetable oil at low prices, and short - term, wait for the planting area report [34]. - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil: The old - crop rapeseed inventory is tight, and the new - crop has weather uncertainties. The inventory in East China is abundant, and the demand is not good. Short - term, it is advisable to shift from bearish to waiting and seeing [35]. - Domestic soybeans fell. US soybeans are weak, and the domestic supply is supplemented by auctions. Short - term, pay attention to the US soybean planting area report [36]. - Corn futures fluctuated weakly. The spot market has no major contradictions. The expected increase in state - reserve auctions suppresses the increase. The inventory situation varies, and the market will fluctuate [37]. - Hog futures prices rebounded slightly, but the far - month contracts are weak. The short - term rebound space is limited, and long - term, pay attention to the inflection point of production capacity [38]. - Egg futures prices fluctuated downward. The supply capacity is still being released, and the old - hen culling is insufficient. Long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [39]. - Cotton prices: US cotton rose. The domestic cotton demand is weak, but the inventory is tight. It is advisable to buy at low prices [40]. - Sugar prices: US sugar fluctuated. The Brazilian policy is positive for sugar prices. The domestic sugar import is low, and the inventory pressure is light. The market will fluctuate [41]. - Apple prices fluctuated. The market demand decreased, and the focus is on the new - season output forecast. The output is expected to be bearish, and it is advisable to maintain a bearish strategy [42]. - Wood prices fluctuated. The supply from New Zealand will remain low, but the domestic demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to wait and see [43]. - Pulp prices fell slightly. The suspension of the delivery of a futures brand has limited impact. The inventory is still high year - on - year, and the demand is weak. It will fluctuate weakly [44]. Group 7: Financial Products - Stock index: A - shares fluctuated lower, and index futures contracts fell slightly. The external market rose overnight. The market risk appetite improved, and it is advisable to increase the allocation of technology - growth stocks [45]. - Treasury bonds: Treasury bond futures mostly fell. The central bank increased net investment to help liquidity cross the season smoothly. The bond market trading is dull, and short - term, pay attention to the risk of increased volatility [46].
综合晨报-20250627
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-06-27 03:44