化工日报：全钢胎开工率环比继续回升-20250627

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for RU: Neutral [5] - Investment rating for NR: Neutral [5] - Investment rating for BR: Neutral [5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For natural rubber, although the upstream fire made the market strong, its impact on supply was limited. The increase in downstream all - steel tire operating rate increased raw material consumption, but the increase in arrivals and domestic production led to a slight increase in port and social inventories, putting pressure on prices [5] - For butadiene rubber, the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply is in a loss situation with expected declining output, but supply has increased this week. The tire factory's operating rate has increased, but terminal orders haven't improved, and the procurement intention has declined. It follows the price of upstream raw materials [5] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: RU main contract closed at 14,040 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton; NR main contract at 12,145 yuan/ton, up 335 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: Yunnan - produced whole latex in Shanghai market at 14,000 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber at 13,950 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber at 1,710 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber at 1,650 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars/ton; BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical at 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua at 11,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - Semi - steel tire enterprises' shipments haven't improved, with high domestic purchase pressure and support from the export market. Many enterprises continue to control production. All - steel tire enterprises are relatively stable, and some factories may adjust price policies [2] - In May 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 101.993 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. From January to May, the output was 4.88962 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% [2] - In May 2025, China's synthetic rubber production was 699,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to May, the cumulative production was 3.534 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [2] - In May 2025, the national passenger car market retail volume was 1.932 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month increase of 10.1%. From January to May, the cumulative retail volume was 8.811 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9.1% [2] - In May 2025, China's truck and bus tire exports were 437,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% and a year - on - year increase of 12.93%. From January to May, the cumulative exports were 1.9275 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.85%. The export average price was 2,095.8 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.56% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On June 26, 2025, RU basis was - 40 yuan/ton (- 20); RU main - mixed rubber spread was 90 yuan/ton (+ 20); smoked sheet rubber import profit was - 6,329 yuan/ton (+ 177.29); NR basis was 102 yuan/ton (- 164); whole latex at 14,000 yuan/ton (+ 250); mixed rubber at 13,950 yuan/ton (+ 250); 3L spot at 14,650 yuan/ton (+ 100); STR20 at 1,710 US dollars/ton (+ 25); whole latex - 3L spread was - 650 yuan/ton (+ 150); mixed rubber - styrene - butadiene spread was 2,050 yuan/ton (+ 250) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet at 65.79 baht/kg (+ 0.10); Thai latex at 57.25 baht/kg (- 0.25); Thai cup lump at 46.95 baht/kg (- 0.25); Thai latex - cup lump at 10.30 baht/kg (unchanged) [4] - Operating rate: All - steel tire operating rate was 62.23% (+ 0.84%); semi - steel tire operating rate was 70.40% (- 1.14%) [4] - Inventory: Natural rubber social inventory was 1,286,145 tons (+ 7,842); Qingdao Port natural rubber inventory was 617,288 tons (+ 10,313); RU futures inventory was 192,840 tons (- 230); NR futures inventory was 32,256 tons (- 2,620) [4] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On June 26, 2025, BR basis was 105 yuan/ton (+ 30); butadiene Sinopec ex - factory price at 9,600 yuan/ton (unchanged); BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical at 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged); BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua at 11,350 yuan/ton (unchanged); Shandong private butadiene rubber at 11,300 yuan/ton (unchanged); Northeast Asian import profit of butadiene rubber at - 1,043 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4] - Operating rate: High - cis butadiene rubber operating rate was 68.54% (+ 2.22%) [5] - Inventory: Butadiene rubber trader inventory was 6,370 tons (- 450); butadiene rubber enterprise inventory was 27,650 tons (+ 700) [5]