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煤焦:刚需旺盛,盘面震荡偏强
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-06-27 04:06

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not mentioned Group 2 - Core view: Recently, coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the pressure of oversupply to some extent. The upstream coal mines have seen an inventory inflection point, and coking coal may continue to show a volatile and upward trend in the short term [2][3] Group 3 - Coal and coke market situation: Yesterday, coking coal futures prices showed a volatile rebound trend and continued at night. On the spot side, the fourth round of coke price cuts has been gradually implemented, and there is no further price cut dynamic for the time being [3] - Production data: This week, the daily output of raw coal in coal mines was 1.85 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 45,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 203,000 tons; the daily output of clean coal was 738,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 35,000 tons [3] - Mine production changes: This week, 11 coal mines such as Jining and Huaning stopped production, involving a production capacity of 14.45 million tons and affecting the daily output of raw coal by 45,800 tons; 1 coal mine resumed production, involving a production capacity of 1.5 million tons and affecting the daily output of raw coal by 4,000 tons [3] - Regional production reduction: This week, coal mines in Changzhi and Linfen, Shanxi, reduced production and stopped production due to safety reasons, resulting in a significant decline in production and a shortage of resources such as lean coal. In Wuhai, Inner Mongolia, environmental inspections continued, and surrounding open-pit coal mines voluntarily stopped production [3] - Demand situation: This week, steel mills maintained a high operating rate, and the rigid demand for raw materials was good. The combination of coal mine production cuts and strong demand led to a downward inflection point in the inventory of upstream coal mines [3]