银河期货燃料油半年报

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - sulfur fuel oil was strong in H1 2025, with support shifting from supply to demand. It's expected to remain strong in Q3 due to peak - season power generation demand and geopolitical policy games, and become looser in Q4 as demand fades and supply returns. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [3][4][63]. - For investment strategies, it's recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, focus on FU9 - 1 positive spreads and narrowing high - low sulfur spreads in Q3 for arbitrage, and there are no options recommendations [5][63]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - High - sulfur fuel oil was supported by supply in Q1 2025, with main suppliers like Russia, Iran, and Mexico having supply issues. In Q2, power generation demand increased, and Egypt bought large amounts for power generation. Low - sulfur fuel oil was weak overall, with supply increasing after the stable operation of Al - Zour refinery and the return of South Sudan's heavy low - sulfur raw materials, and demand lacking a clear driving force [3]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be strong in Q3 due to power generation demand and geopolitical factors, and become looser in Q4. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [4]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Single - side: Stay on the sidelines. - Arbitrage: Focus on FU9 - 1 positive spreads and narrowing high - low sulfur spreads in Q3. - Options: None [5]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - High - sulfur fuel oil was strong in H1 2025, with support shifting from supply to demand. In Q1, supply - side issues in Russia, Iran, and Mexico supported the market. In Q2, power generation demand increased, and supply tightened. Low - sulfur fuel oil was weak, with supply increasing after the stable operation of Al - Zour refinery and the return of South Sudan's heavy low - sulfur raw materials, and demand lacking a clear driving force [9][10]. 3.2.2 Supply Overview - High - sulfur supply: - Russia's supply was restricted by sanctions and bombings in H1 2025, and is expected to remain below 300 tons/month in H2. - Mexico's high - sulfur supply returned to the level before the Olmeca refinery's operation and is expected to be stable. - Middle - East high - sulfur exports had a monthly gap of about 400,000 tons in H1 2025 compared to previous years, mainly due to Iran. It's expected to be restricted in Q3 and recover in Q4 [18][22][28]. - Low - sulfur supply: - South Sudan's low - sulfur heavy raw material Dar Blend is recovering, and export tenders continue. - Kuwait's Al - Zour refinery has stable supply. - Nigeria's Dangote refinery has unstable gasoline unit operation, with sufficient short - term low - sulfur supply [50][52][54]. 3.2.3 Demand Overview - High - sulfur demand: - High - sulfur marine fuel demand is stably supported by the growth of desulfurization tower - equipped ships. - China's refinery high - sulfur feed demand is expected to slightly recover in H2. - High - sulfur power generation demand in summer 2025 exceeded expectations and is expected to remain strong in Q3 [34][38][45]. - Low - sulfur demand: - There is no specific driving force for demand, and marine fuel demand is stable. - China's low - sulfur market has abundant quotas, and production is stable [56][58]. 3.2.4 Inventory and Valuation No information provided. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be strong before Q3 and become looser in Q4. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. - Strategy recommendations: - Single - side: Stay on the sidelines. - Arbitrage: Focus on FU9 - 1 positive spreads and narrowing high - low sulfur spreads in Q3. - Options: None [63].