国投安粮期货：国内经济数据边际改善，央行等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Macro and Stock Index - Domestic economic data shows marginal improvement, and six departments including the central bank have issued guidelines to support consumption, with a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care, promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market. The international Middle - East situation is short - term eased but still has the risk of recurrence. IC/IM maintains a deep discount. Short - sellers should choose the near - month contract to avoid basis fluctuations in the far - month contract, while long - term investors can focus on basis convergence opportunities. The long - IM and short - IH arbitrage portfolio may still have room, but beware of the callback pressure of small - cap stocks at high levels [2]. Crude Oil - The conflict between Israel and Iran has eased, and the risk premium of crude oil has shrunk significantly. The price has fallen sharply and is seeking support at the 500 - yuan/barrel level of the SC main contract. WTI main contract should focus on the support around $65/barrel [3]. Gold - Fed Chairman Powell reiterated "not in a hurry to cut interest rates", but Trump's dissatisfaction has led to concerns about the Fed's policy continuity and independence. The weakening dollar supports gold, while the easing of the Middle - East situation weakens its short - term safe - haven demand. The current gold price is in a shock range, and attention should be paid to the US GDP and PCE data [4][5]. Silver - The internal policy divergence of the Fed has intensified, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts has decreased, suppressing the short - term upward movement of precious metals. The demand growth in key areas of silver is slowing down, but it may have room for a supplementary rise compared with gold. Pay attention to the support at $34.8 - 35.0/ounce [6]. Chemicals - PTA and ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term. PVC, PP, and plastics still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term due to weak fundamentals. Soda ash is recommended to be treated with a bottom - shock idea, and glass is recommended to be treated with an interval - shock idea [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]. Agricultural Products - Corn is in an upward channel but may face short - term callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 2350 yuan/ton. Peanuts are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Cotton's upside space is limited. Bean II and soybean meal may test the platform support in the short term. Soybean oil may fluctuate in the short term. Hogs may fluctuate, and eggs may oscillate at a low level [19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28]. Metals - Shanghai copper is waiting for new signals. Shanghai aluminum can be operated in the short term by aggressive investors or waited by conservative investors. Alumina shows a weak adjustment trend. Cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate in the short term. Lithium carbonate may continue to be under pressure, and industrial silicon and polysilicon may oscillate at the bottom [29][30][31][32][33][34]. Black Metals - Stainless steel may fluctuate weakly at a low level. Rebar and hot - rolled coils can be considered to go long lightly at low levels. Iron ore may oscillate in the short term, and coal may also oscillate in the short term [35][36][37][38][39]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Macro and Stock Index - Macro Situation: Domestic economic data improves marginally, and policies support consumption and long - term funds entry. Internationally, the Middle - East situation is unstable [2]. - Market Analysis: Different stock index futures have different trading volumes, basis rates, and capital flows. The style differentiation continues [2]. - Reference Views: Provide suggestions for short - sellers, long - term investors, and arbitrageurs, and remind of risks [2]. Crude Oil - Macro and Geopolitical Situation: The conflict between Israel and Iran eases, and the risk premium of crude oil shrinks [3]. - Market Analysis: Geopolitical factors lead to price fluctuations, and the price is sensitive to external factors. The summer peak season supports the price to some extent [3]. - Reference Views: Focus on the support level of WTI [3]. Gold - Macro and Geopolitical Situation: Powell's statement and Trump's dissatisfaction affect the dollar and gold. The easing of the Middle - East situation weakens the safe - haven demand for gold [4]. - Market Analysis: Gold price is supported by the weak dollar and interest - rate cut expectations, and shows a short - term bearish signal [4][5]. - Operation Suggestions: Focus on key economic data and the support level of gold [5]. Silver - Market Price: The price of spot silver shows a narrow - range shock [6]. - Market Analysis: Policy divergence in the Fed, slowing demand growth in key areas, and geopolitical factors affect silver price [6]. - Operation Suggestions: Silver may have room for a supplementary rise, and pay attention to the support level [6]. Chemicals PTA and Ethylene Glycol - Spot Information: The prices of PTA and ethylene glycol in East China are the same, with a decline and a certain basis [7][8]. - Market Analysis: Middle - East geopolitical easing affects the cost. There are device overhauls and restarts, and the demand is weak [7][8]. - Reference Views: Short - term interval fluctuation [7][8]. PVC - Spot Information: The prices of different types of PVC are stable [9]. - Market Analysis: Supply capacity utilization rate changes, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory decreases [9]. - Reference Views: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [9]. PP - Spot Market: The prices in different regions of PP decline [10]. - Market Analysis: Supply capacity utilization rate rises, demand decreases, and inventory increases [10]. - Reference Views: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [10][11]. Plastics - Spot Market: The prices in different regions of plastics have different trends [12]. - Market Analysis: Supply capacity utilization rate decreases slightly, demand has a small change, and inventory decreases [12]. - Reference Views: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [12]. Soda Ash - Spot Information: The prices in different regions are stable [13]. - Market Analysis: Supply increases slightly, inventory increases, and demand is average [13]. - Reference Views: Short - term bottom - shock [13][14]. Glass - Spot Information: The prices in different regions are stable [15]. - Market Analysis: Supply decreases slightly, inventory decreases slightly, and demand is weak [15]. - Reference Views: Short - term interval shock [15]. Rubber - Market Price: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [16]. - Market Analysis: Affected by crude oil and trade policies, the supply is loose, and the demand is affected by the trade war [16]. - Reference Views: Bottom - shock and focus on downstream开工率 [16][17]. Methanol - Spot Information: The prices in different regions change [18]. - Market Analysis: Futures price rises, port inventory increases, supply increases, and demand has different trends [18]. - Reference Views: Short - term shock and focus on Iranian supply and domestic inventory [18]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot Information: The prices in different regions are provided [19]. - Market Analysis: The USDA report has limited support, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors [20]. - Reference Views: Short - term callback and focus on the support level [20]. Peanuts - Spot Price: The prices in different regions are provided [21]. - Market Analysis: The expected increase in planting area may put pressure on the price, and the current supply - demand is weak [21]. - Reference Views: Short - term interval shock [21]. Cotton - Spot Information: The prices of domestic and foreign cotton are provided [22]. - Market Analysis: The USDA report is positive, and the domestic supply is expected to be loose, with short - term supply - demand contradictions [22]. - Reference Views: Limited upside space [22]. Bean II - Spot Information: The import costs of soybeans from different countries are provided [23]. - Market Analysis: The Middle - East conflict eases, and the weather affects the market [23]. - Reference Views: Short - term test of the support level [23]. Soybean Meal - Spot Information: The prices in different regions are provided [24]. - Market Analysis: Affected by macro - policies, international factors, and domestic supply - demand [24][25]. - Reference Views: Short - term test of the support level [25]. Soybean Oil - Spot Information: The prices in different regions are provided [26]. - Market Analysis: Affected by international and domestic supply - demand factors [26]. - Reference Views: Short - term interval shock [26]. Hogs - Spot Market: The prices in different regions change [27]. - Market Analysis: Supply and demand factors affect the price, and the price may oscillate [27]. - Reference Views: Short - term oscillation, and focus on the slaughter situation [27]. Eggs - Spot Market: The prices in different regions decline [28]. - Market Analysis: Supply is still excessive, and demand is weak in the off - season [28]. - Reference Views: Low - level oscillation, and focus on farmers' culling willingness [28]. Metals Shanghai Copper - Spot Information: The price of electrolytic copper rises, and the import index falls [29]. - Market Analysis: Geopolitical and policy factors affect the market, and the copper market is in a complex situation [29]. - Reference Views: Wait for new signals [29]. Shanghai Aluminum - Spot Information: The price of aluminum rises [30]. - Market Analysis: Geopolitical risks, supply - demand situation, and inventory level affect the price [30]. - Reference Views: Different strategies for different types of investors [30]. Alumina - Spot Information: The price of alumina falls [31]. - Market Analysis: Supply is excessive, demand is average, and inventory is high [31]. - Reference Views: Weak adjustment [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot Information: The price is stable [32]. - Market Analysis: Cost support and supply - demand contradictions affect the price [32]. - Reference Views: Short - term interval shock [32]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot Information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rise [33]. - Market Analysis: Cost, supply, and demand factors lead to weak fundamentals and high inventory [33]. - Reference Views: Considered as an oversold rebound, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [33]. Industrial Silicon - Spot Information: The prices of different types of industrial silicon fall [34]. - Market Analysis: Supply increases, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [34]. - Reference Views: Bottom - shock, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [34]. Polysilicon - Spot Information: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [34]. - Market Analysis: Supply increases, demand decreases, and inventory is high [34]. - Reference Views: Bottom - shock, and consider profit - taking for short - sellers [34]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot Information: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel rises [35]. - Market Analysis: The cost support is weak, supply is high, and demand is weak [35]. - Reference Views: Weak shock at a low level [35]. Rebar - Spot Information: The price of rebar in Shanghai falls [36]. - Market Analysis: The market shows a shock trend, with cost and demand factors [36]. - Reference Views: Consider going long lightly at low levels [36]. Hot - Rolled Coils - Spot Information: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai is stable [37]. - Market Analysis: The market is stabilizing, with cost and demand factors [37]. - Reference Views: Consider going long lightly at low levels [37]. Iron Ore - Spot Information: The prices of iron ore indexes and varieties are provided [38]. - Market Analysis: Supply and demand factors, and external factors affect the price [38]. - Reference Views: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and production resumption [38]. Coal - Spot Information: The prices of coking coal and coke change [39]. - Market Analysis: Supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal and coke [39]. - Operation Suggestions: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and policies [39].