股指早盘提示-20250627

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Goldman Sachs China equity strategist Fu Si maintains an overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2] - Bank of America Chief Investment Strategist Hartnett believes global capital allocation is gradually shifting from the US to Eurasian markets [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The market underwent a minor adjustment on Thursday for technical repair, with the Bank ETF hitting a new high. Multiple foreign giants suddenly collectively sang well of Chinese assets, and global financial asset reallocation "de-Americanization" is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A-shares. The market is in a technical adjustment phase, and it's necessary to observe whether the market can evolve from a volatile rebound to a trending upward movement [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the market had a minor volatile adjustment to repair technical indicators, and the Bank ETF hit a new high. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1.58 trillion yuan, showing little change. The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6,247 points, down 28 points or -0.45%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 5,838 points, down 24 points or -0.41%; the SSE 300 Index closed at 3,946 points, down 14 points or -0.35%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2,738 points, down 9 points or -0.34%. Among industry and thematic ETFs, those with the highest gains were the Communication Equipment ETF, Cloud 50 ETF, Bank ETF Leader, Gold Stocks ETF, and GEM Artificial Intelligence ETF Southern, while those with the highest losses were the Securities ETF Leader, Innovative Drug ETF Hong Kong & Shanghai, and STAR 100 ETF. Among the sector indices of the two markets, those with the highest gains were the Ground Military Equipment, Tourism, Marine Economy, Military Trade Concept, and Military Informatization Indices, while those with the highest losses were the Medical Services, Passenger Vehicles, Securities, Lithography Machines, and Innovative Drug Indices. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 300, SSE 50, and index stock index futures saw net outflows of 5 billion, 3.3 billion, 3.1 billion, and 1.5 billion yuan respectively in the settled funds [1] Important News - Chinese Premier attended the opening ceremony of the 2025 Summer Davos Forum and delivered a speech, stating that the Chinese market continues to expand in scale and improve in quality, which will create incremental space for reversing the decline in international trade. China's continuous breakthroughs in innovation will inject new vitality into global development to overcome the lack of momentum [1] - The deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission said that the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade-in this year will be allocated in July, and relevant parties will be coordinated to balance the use of funds to ensure the orderly implementation of consumer goods trade-in throughout the year [1] - According to data from the National Energy Administration, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in the first five months of 2025 was about 198GW, while that in the first four months was 105GW. That is to say, the installed capacity in May alone reached 93GW, a year-on-year increase of 388% [1] - The Shenwan Macro team believes that there is a 3.3 trillion yuan gap in service industry investment, which stems from the gap between residents' service consumption and historical trends and the imbalance between supply and demand. With the growth of per capita GDP and population aging, consumption shows a "servitization" characteristic [1] - NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang said that in the future, there will be billions of robots, hundreds of millions of autonomous vehicles, and hundreds of thousands of robot factories, all of which can be powered by NVIDIA's technology [1] - UBS warned that the current rally in US stocks is nearing its end: the indicator measuring real risk appetite has been weakening. Similar to the situation after a strong short squeeze, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices fell by an average of 11% and 13% respectively within three months. The capital situation has further deteriorated, and retail investors, foreign investors, and pension funds are expected to continue selling, and corporate buybacks will also enter a quiet period [1] - Goldman Sachs and Barclays released reports stating that considering the easing of recession concerns, funds are selling European assets at the fastest pace in nearly a year and refocusing on the US. Nomura Securities found that a volatility-based trading strategy may attract hundreds of billions of quantitative funds to flow back to the US in the short term [2] - Trump said that the conflict between Israel and Iran may break out again, perhaps soon. He warned that if Iran restarts its nuclear program, the US will strike again [2] - From June 24th to 25th, the NATO Summit was held in The Hague, the Netherlands. In the joint statement after the meeting, the most important "achievement" was the agreement to increase military spending to 5% of GDP [2] - According to the latest media reports, if OPEC+ deems it necessary, Russia is willing to support another production increase at the next OPEC+ meeting. If approved by the government, the Russian oil industry is ready to increase production again in August [2] - Trump is considering announcing the candidate for the next Fed Chairman as early as this summer, much earlier than the traditional 3 - 4 month transition period [2] - Fed Chairman said in a Senate hearing that tariffs may cause a one-time increase in prices, but the more persistent inflation risk cannot be ignored. The Fed must take a cautious attitude to ensure price stability and healthy economic development [2] Market Logic - The market had a minor adjustment on Thursday for technical repair, and the Bank ETF hit a new high. Beijing Business Daily published an article stating that the new high of bank stocks is different from the speculation of theme stocks. Although both have reached new highs in stock prices, bank stocks are supported by performance and dividends. The movement of bank stocks is more of a revaluation of value, which will not only prevent long-term funds from exiting but also attract off-market funds to buy. Multiple foreign giants suddenly collectively sang well of Chinese assets. Goldman Sachs China equity strategist Fu Si said that the overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is maintained [2] Outlook for the Future Market - The market had a minor adjustment on Thursday for technical repair, and the Bank ETF hit a new high. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang said that in the future, there will be billions of robots, hundreds of millions of autonomous vehicles, and hundreds of thousands of robot factories, all of which can be powered by NVIDIA's technology. A strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management pointed out that one of the current global long-term structural trends is technology, and China is in a leading position in many technology fields. Global investors are increasingly paying attention to China's innovation and leading position. Multiple foreign giants suddenly collectively sang well of Chinese assets. Goldman Sachs China equity strategist Fu Si said that the overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is maintained. Bank of America Chief Investment Strategist Hartnett believes that global capital allocation is gradually shifting from the US to Eurasian markets. The "de-Americanization" of global financial asset reallocation is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A-shares. The Bank ETF hit a new high again, and funds continue to flow into high-dividend sectors. The market is in a technical adjustment phase, and it's necessary to observe whether the market can evolve from a volatile rebound to a trending upward movement [2] Trading Strategies - Directional trading of stock index futures: The market is in a technical adjustment phase. Observe whether the market can evolve from a volatile rebound to a trending upward movement, and pay attention to the resistance levels of the Shanghai Composite Index at 3,450 - 3,500 points [2] - Stock index option trading: The market is in a technical adjustment phase. Observe whether a trending upward movement will appear [2]