淡季消费偏弱，终端开工走低

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is rated as neutral, and there is no recommendation for the inter - period strategy [3] Core View - Geopolitical tensions have significantly eased, weakening the cost - side support for polyolefins, and trading has returned to fundamentals. During the off - season, consumption is weak. The overall operating load of PE downstream agricultural film is at a low level. The operating rate of packaging film is lower than the same period, the operating rate of plastic weaving has decreased, and the terminal's willingness to stock up is low, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. The inventory of production enterprises has slightly increased, while the inventory of middle - stream traders has decreased. The new 500,000 - ton/year PP production capacity of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical has been successfully put into operation. Currently, there are many short - stop maintenance devices, which are expected to resume operation one after another in the future. The short - term supply pressure is not significant, but the supply is expected to increase in the future [2] Summary According to the Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report presents the trends of the plastic futures main contract and the PP futures main contract, as well as the basis between LL East China and the main contract, and the basis between PP East China and the main contract [8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 76.4% (- 2.3%), and PP operating rate is 79.3% (- 0.3%). PE oil - based production profit is 363.4 yuan/ton (- 95.5), PP oil - based production profit is - 26.6 yuan/ton (- 95.5), and PDH - based PP production profit is 77.7 yuan/ton (+ 79.2) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - The report analyzes the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [28][36][37] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is - 61.4 yuan/ton (- 55.2), PP import profit is - 297.8 yuan/ton (+ 41.0), and PP export profit is 19.9 US dollars/ton (+ 20.6) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.4% (+ 0.2%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.0% (- 1.2%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.2% (- 0.4%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (+ 0.0) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The inventory of production enterprises has slightly increased, while the inventory of middle - stream traders has decreased [2]