化工日报：宏观回归平淡，PX基本面偏强维持-20250627

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The futures products of the polyester industry chain have returned to fundamental trading, and attention should be paid to whether the bottle chip production reduction plan can be implemented after the raw material prices decline. The fundamentals of PX remain tight, and the spot floating price remains strong [1] - If there are no new variables during the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the oil market will shift from geopolitical to fundamental drivers. The oil market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand, with limited short - term pressure. However, in the fourth quarter, it is expected to be in a state of oversupply [2] - The gasoline cracking spread in the US has declined again, and the upside potential is limited. The intermittent blending demand at home and abroad can be basically met by naphtha, which restricts the enthusiasm of aromatics entering the gasoline pool [2] - Overseas PX operation rates have declined significantly due to geopolitical conflicts and delayed restarts of some plants. Some domestic PX plants are scheduled for maintenance at the end of the month, and the spot market is still short of supply [2] - With the cancellation of a large number of warehouse receipts and the delivery of major suppliers, the tight supply situation in the PTA spot market has eased, and the fundamental contradictions of PTA are not significant [5] - The polyester operation rate is 92.0% (up 1.1% month - on - month). The domestic and foreign sales are in the off - season, but the polyester performance is relatively good, and the load is firm. However, the inventory pressure may increase when the prices fluctuate at high levels [3] - The short - fiber inventory is not high, but the implementation of the production reduction plan is in doubt. The polyester bottle chip processing fee is still under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the production reduction plan can be implemented and the change of container freight rates [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [10][11][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - It covers PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [19][22] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes toluene US - Asia spreads, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan CFR naphtha spreads, and PTA export profits [27][29] Upstream PX and PTA Operation Rates - Figures show the operation rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX operation rates in China and Asia [30][33][35] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [39][42][43] Downstream Polyester Load - It covers filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operation rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing [50][52][63] PF Detailed Data - It includes 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spreads, pure polyester yarn operation rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operation rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [75][85][91] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It includes polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, the price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread [94][96][101]