原油日报：美国或考虑放松伊朗石油制裁-20250627

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short-term: Oil prices are expected to trade in a range; Medium-term: Bearish allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - If Iran returns to the negotiation table and reaches an agreement with the US, the ceiling for Iranian oil exports will be lifted again. Production may increase by 500,000 barrels per day to 4 million barrels per day within six months, and exports may increase to 2.5 million barrels per day, which is a significant negative for the oil market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 32 cents to $65.24 per barrel, a 0.49% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for August delivery rose 5 cents to $67.73 per barrel, a 0.07% increase. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 1.46% at 498 yuan per barrel [1] - US oil executives won Trump's support in efforts to abolish European environmental regulations. US oil giants and their lobbyists urged Trump and his cabinet members to use ongoing trade negotiations with the EU to push for the cancellation of two major climate laws in the European Green Deal [1] - The US goods trade deficit unexpectedly widened in May, with exports posting the largest decline since the pandemic began and imports barely changing. The goods trade deficit increased 11.1% to $96.6 billion, higher than market expectations [1] - The Trump administration has discussed potentially helping Iran obtain up to $30 billion for civilian nuclear energy projects, relaxing sanctions, and unfreezing billions of dollars in restricted Iranian funds as part of efforts to bring Tehran back to the negotiation table [1] - Israel estimates that the 12-day war with Iran caused losses of 10 billion shekels (about $3 billion), and the total losses may climb significantly after the evaluation is completed. The Bank of Israel expects the economic growth rate this year to be 3.5%, but this figure may be affected by the recent war [1] Investment Logic - Next week, the US and Iran will hold negotiations. If Iran gives up uranium enrichment activities, the US will consider relaxing Iranian oil sanctions. If an agreement is reached, it will be a major negative for the oil market [2] Strategy - Short-term: Oil prices are expected to trade in a range; Medium-term: Bearish allocation [3] Risk - Downside risks: US lifting of Iranian oil sanctions, macro black swan events [3] - Upside risks: Tightening supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), large-scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]