Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to the interplay of bullish and bearish factors, while maintaining the view in the mid - year report "The Stronger Prevail, the Bull Market of Precious Metals Continues" for the medium - and long - term. The new support range for COMEX gold is $3100 - 3300, and the support range for COMEX silver is $32 - 33. The upper targets for gold and silver within the year are $3900 - 4000 and $39 - 40 respectively. The weekly ranges to watch are [3200, 3450] for COMEX gold and [32, 35] for COMEX silver [1][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - Trump welcomes the rapid end of the Israel - Iran war and plans to talk with Iranian officials next week to seek an end to Iran's nuclear ambitions [2] - Powell says Trump's tariff plan may cause a one - time price increase, and the Fed will be cautious about further rate cuts due to inflation risks [2] - The US Treasury extends the authorization for extraordinary cash management measures to July 24 to avoid hitting the debt ceiling [2] - Hong Kong releases the Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0, aiming to build a global digital asset center, and will implement a licensing mechanism for stablecoin issuers on August 1 [2] - The US May durable goods orders monthly rate is 16.4%, much higher than the expected 8.5% [2] - The US Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value is - 0.5%, worse than the expected - 0.20% [2] - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21 are 236,000, lower than the expected 245,000 [3] Price Logic - As of the close on the 26th, gold prices rose moderately for the second consecutive day, driven by concerns about Fed independence and rate - cut expectations. However, gold failed to break through $3350 per ounce, indicating a lack of strong upward momentum [4][7] - In the Middle East situation, Trump's claim of victory over Iran and the uncertain damage to Iranian uranium - enrichment facilities, along with market caution, suppressed gold prices [7] - US economic data on the 26th night showed stagflation in Q1, with unexpected manufacturing demand and a robust labor market in Q2. The 5 - year and 30 - year Treasury yield spread reached its steepest level since 2021 [7][8] - Despite Trump's plan to replace Powell, the Fed's Goolsbee says it won't affect FOMC independence [8]
海外制造业与劳动力市场稳健，金价短线下挫
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-06-27 05:26