新能源及有色金属日报：旺季来临，铅价震荡偏强-20250627

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - As the peak consumption season for lead - acid batteries in the third quarter approaches and the supply of lead ore remains relatively tight, the possibility of a significant decline in lead prices is relatively low. There may even be a squeeze - out situation, so it is advisable to adopt a strategy of buying on dips for hedging [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On June 26, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$21.37/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to - 35.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price also increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton, while the prices of waste white - shell and black - shell batteries remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton and 10,500 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On June 26, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 17,170 yuan/ton, closed at 17,225 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 52,643 lots, an increase of 16,421 lots from the previous day, and the position was 51,182 lots, an increase of 36,029 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 17,150 yuan/ton and 17,255 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 17,225 yuan/ton and closed at 17,260 yuan/ton, up 0.32% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 75 yuan/ton the previous day. In Henan, smelters offered prices at par with SMM1 lead, and traders offered discounts of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead contracts 2507/2508. In Hunan, smelters offered discounts of 50 - 30 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead, and traders offered discounts of 220 - 200 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract. With the rise in lead prices, smelters actively offered for sale, and the mainstream production areas sold at discounts. Downstream enterprises only made purchases based on rigid demand, resulting in limited transactions. Some traders bought large - discount goods, and due to the large difference between futures and spot prices, some holders intended to deliver to the warehouse, and such transactions were fair [2] Inventory - On June 26, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous week. As of June 26, the LME lead inventory was 273,250 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy is to be cautiously bullish. As the third - quarter peak consumption season for lead - acid batteries approaches and lead ore supply is tight, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging. The operation range for the Pb2508 contract is 16,900 - 16,950 yuan/ton [3] - The option strategy is to sell put options [4]