氯碱日报：PVC社会库存止跌回升，液碱库存亦走高-20250627

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core Views - PVC: After the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East eases, the PVC market returns to fundamentals. The supply - demand situation remains weak, with supply in excess and cost - side support lacking. Although exports are stable, domestic demand is weak, and social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise [3]. - Caustic soda: The supply pressure is expected to increase, downstream procurement is not active, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda has risen. The caustic soda market lacks positive drivers, and the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit still has room to compress [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market Price and Basis - Futures price: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4872 yuan/ton (+1). The East China basis is - 142 yuan/ton (-1), and the South China basis is - 42 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4730 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4830 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. Production Profit - Upstream: The semi - coke price is 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2880 yuan/ton (+0), and the calcium carbide profit is 130 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - PVC production: The gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is - 494 yuan/ton (+18), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is - 640 yuan/ton (-80), and the PVC export profit is - 0.6 dollars/ton (+0.4) [1]. Inventory and Operation Rate - Inventory: The in - plant PVC inventory is 40.2 tons (+0.5), and the social PVC inventory is 35.5 tons (+0.0) [1]. - Operation rate: The operation rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80.43% (+0.81%), the operation rate of ethylene - based PVC is 67.38% (-1.85%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 76.81% (+0.07%) [1]. Downstream Orders - The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 64.8 tons (+1.0) [1]. Caustic Soda Market Price and Basis - Futures price: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2311 yuan/ton (+32), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 127 yuan/ton (-32) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1300 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. Production Profit - Single - product profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1446 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Comprehensive profit: The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 823.3 yuan/ton (+40.0), the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 111.28 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1233.53 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. Inventory and Operation Rate - Inventory: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 39.04 tons (+2.39), and the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.58 tons (-0.27) [2]. - Operation rate: The operation rate of caustic soda is 82.50% (+1.30%) [2]. Downstream Operation Rate - Alumina operation rate is 80.74% (-0.13%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.38% (-0.35%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 78.57% (-2.23%) [2].