供应趋紧预期仍存，郑棉期价延续反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][5][7] 2. Report's Core View - The cotton market has a supply - tightening expectation, but new - year domestic production is expected to increase, and demand is weakening in the off - season. The sugar market has a complex situation with supply increase expectations in the new season and import pressure on domestic prices. The pulp market has a supply - abundant situation and weak downstream demand [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,720 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton (+0.55%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,957 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,020 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton [1] - As of June 19, the US net signed 6,214 tons of upland cotton this year and shipped 42,000 tons, with 0 tons net - signed to China and 1,882 tons shipped [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the June USDA report cut 25/26 global cotton production and consumption, with a decrease in ending stocks. US cotton growing areas have more rainfall, but the seedling condition has worsened. Domestically, commercial inventory is de - stocking, but new - year planting area is stable or increasing, and demand is in the off - season [2] Strategy - Neutral. Uncertain tariff policies, weather - induced short - term strength, but new - year high - yield expectations and weakening demand create upward pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,790 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton (+0.57%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,080 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,890 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [4] - Brazil will increase the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% from August 1, 2025 [4] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou sugar futures were strong. Brazilian new - season supply is expected to increase, but there may be a short - term rebound. Domestic sugar sales are fast, but import volume in July may suppress the rebound [4] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar follows the international market, and attention should be paid to Brazilian estimates and domestic import rhythm [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,066 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.08%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,990 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - The decline of imported wood pulp prices slowed down, and downstream paper mills' purchasing enthusiasm did not improve [5] Market Analysis - Pulp futures oscillated at a low level. The suspension of a delivery product caused market fluctuations, but the supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season [6] Strategy - Neutral. The 09 contract is mainly priced by certain pulp types, and the market lacks positive drivers, so prices may stay at the bottom [7]