化工日报：海外装置集中重启，EG震荡下跌-20250627

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unmentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The EG price is fluctuating downward due to the concentrated restart of overseas EG plants in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Malaysia, etc [1]. - The overall fundamental supply - demand logic shows a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The domestic supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure still shows a benign destocking. However, the transferable spot in the market will be supplemented after the warrants are cancelled. Overseas supply is expected to increase. The demand is currently strong, but the demand is expected to be weak due to the concentrated maintenance plans of several large bottle - chip manufacturers in early July [2]. - The strategy for single - side trading is neutral, and attention should be paid to the continuous development of the Israel - Iran conflict and the recovery of imported ethane. There are no strategies for inter - period and inter - variety trading [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,293 yuan/ton (a change of - 30 yuan/ton, or - 0.69% from the previous trading day). The EG spot price in the East China market was 4,360 yuan/ton (a change of - 36 yuan/ton, or - 0.82% from the previous trading day). The EG spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 71 yuan/ton (a decrease of 6 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 72 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was 73 yuan/ton (a decrease of 22 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. 3.3 International Spread - Unmentioned in the detailed content 3.4 Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Unmentioned in the detailed content 3.5 Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 622,000 tons (an increase of 6,000 tons month - on - month). According to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 506,000 tons (a decrease of 31,000 tons month - on - month). The total actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 77,000 tons, and the port inventory was stable. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 62,000 tons, which is relatively small, and the port inventory may decline again [1].